We’ve reached the end of the line for the 2022 NFL season with the two top-seeded teams squaring off (as it should be).
We have five props for the final game of the year – giving away too much for a guy to score a touchdown (but he will), a league MVP who won’t hit the Over on a lofty O/U number, two running backs that history says will both go over their projection, and a big-play receiver who can hit his O/U if he just keeps doing what he’s done the last two months.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (-145)
Admittedly, this is a lot to give away for a touchdown prop when most players are in the plus-numbers for investment, but there’s a good reason for it. Regardless of the defensive attention Kelce gets, he and Patrick Mahomes find a way to score touchdowns when they need them in the playoffs.
In his last 12 postseason games, Kelce has caught 13 touchdowns, including at least one score in each of his last five games and eight of his last nine. This is a lot to invest in a TD prop, but it’s worth it because the odds of it paying out are just too high.
4
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 295.5 passing yards (-115)
The Eagles defense is smothering and led the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 180 passing yards a game. While the two weeks between games has helped Mahomes and his banged-up wide receivers get healthier, they don’t have the big-play dimension of Tyreek Hill, who can pick up a ton of yards on a single play and keep defenses on their heels.
The Eagles defense is going to come after Mahomes and force the ball out of his hand quickly. While his career average for passing yards is more than 300 yards a game in 93 games, he has hit below this total in six of his last 10 playoff games and most of those were against defenses less talented than Philadelphia’s.
3
Philadelphia Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-105)
The clear feeling here is that Miles Sanders is going to shoulder the entire rushing load (the Under for Gainwell’s peewee number is -125). Gainwell’s postseason numbers may be a misnomer – the Eagles blew out the New York Giants early and when San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy went down, so did any chance for San Francisco to compete. That allowed Gainwell to pile up 26 carries in two games an average more than six yards a carry.
In the regular season, Gainwell topped this O/U number just five times, but he has proved himself a valuable No. 2 back in the playoffs when given the opportunity against two defenses that are very good. He may need around only five carries to hit this number, and he’ll get more than that if the Chiefs can’t stop the run consistently.
2
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
While the Eagles had the top pass defense in the league, they were middle of the pack in rush defense, allowing 121 yards a game. Both of the featured backs they’ve faced in the playoffs have blown past this number – Saquon Barkley (9-61) and Christian McCaffrey (15-84-1).
Pacheco has 10 or more carries in each of his last nine games and has topped this O/U number in eight of his last nine. With his speed, he can break off big runs that change field position and has averaged more than four yards a carry in six of his last eight games. It shouldn’t take much more than 10 carries to approach or surpass this number, and Pacheco should see the lion’s share of the carries for the Chiefs on Sunday.
1
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Eagles haven’t had to pass much in their first two playoff games because of being ahead and working the clock once they created a dominant position. However, the Chiefs offense won’t go away as easily as the Giants or QB-starved 49ers did.
The key number here is how many catches will it take Smith to hit the Over? He has at least one reception of 23 or more yards in each of his last six games, including three catches of 40 or more yards. All he needs is one big splash play and he can go past this number with four receptions. Given the inexperience in the Chiefs secondary, Jalen Hurts will have the opportunity to take deep shots, and Smith’s speed could provide the downfield splash play needed to hit the Over.
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