This is a game guaranteed to be historic – either the first three-peat for the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles slay the dragon. We have a season-ending handful of prop bets. They include an unlikely but lurking touchdown scorer, a quarterback topping a small number, a current backup running back making enough plays, a wide receiver continuing a postseason trend, and a Hall-of-Fame tight end stepping up (again) on the biggest stage.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Kansas City Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins scores a touchdown (+500)
This is far from a slam-dunk bet – a 5-to-1 return on investment speaks to its improbability. This is more of a gut feeling. Hopkins hasn’t been used much in the postseason (three targets and one reception in two games), but he is a Hall of Fame player finally getting his shot at a Super Bowl. Andy Reid has a habit of highlighting veteran acquisitions in big situations, and Hopkins remains a deadly red-zone nightmare able to dominate 1-on-1 matchups. He may only catch a couple of passes, but one could well be six-pointer.
4
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts OVER 216.5 passing yards (-115)
The conventional wisdom is that the Eagles are going to run Saquon Barkley and Hurts 35 times. The reality is that if Philadelphia is going to win, it needs Hurts to throw more often than this number indicates. Barkley is going to get every opportunity to succeed, but if A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are single covered downfield against a Chiefs defense loading the box to stop the run, it will take only a few splash plays to make this number easier to surpass … 300? No. 217? Sign me up.
3
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 22.5 rushing yards (-110)
Pacheco has been held in reserve for almost two months as Kareem Hunt has been the primary back – to the point that a fantasy RB1 on draft day has an O/U this small. Hunt earns his money (for now) between the tackles. Pacheco makes a good share of his out on the edge and may top this number with one carry. If he gets five runs, he has a good shot. More than that? Forget about it and head to pay window.
2
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith UNDER 4.5 receptions (-105)
Smith has become the Ringo Starr of the Philly Fab 4. Saquon gets his. Jalen gets his. A.J. gets his. DeVonta gets what’s left. In all three playoff wins for the Eagles, Smith has been targeted four times. He has caught every pass. He hasn’t hit five. There are scenarios where the Eagles run 40 times. If that happens, or gets thwarted late, Smith won’t have the targets he needs with this number – even if he catches all four of them.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 61.5 yards (-118)
Anyone who cashes in on a regular basis understands the Kelce postseason factor. I fully expect him to score a touchdown (or perhaps two), but I already gave away the TD bet. No matter how the game plays out – early blowout, back-and-forth, or bare-knuckle fight – there isn’t an extended play that Mahomes-to-Kelce doesn’t move the chains … and then some. In his last three Super Bowls, Kelce has yardage totals of 93, 81, and 133. This number is doable.
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