This week’s picks have a couple wide receivers showing why they were first round fantasy draft picks, a maligned quarterback lighting it up and two of the best at their respective positions going under their projections because of defensive attention.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill scores a touchdown (+150)
Hill hasn’t scored since Week 1, so he’s overdue to catch a bomb and take it the distance. He’s been a mixed bag against the Buffalo, but a 50% return on investment for Hill to score a TD is hard to pass up. In his first game with Tua Tagovailoa back, Hill had the most receptions (6) and yards (72) since Week 1 – Tua’s last full game. Hill is off the injury report and ready to run deep routes.
4
Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers UNDER 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bowers has been over this number in three of the last four games, but the only game he stayed under 63.5 yards was last week against Kansas City. The Chiefs defense forced the Raiders to throw elsewhere – Bowers was targeted only five times as the clear No. 1 receiving threat. Expect the Bengals to employ a similar approach. Even his gets five receptions, he will need to pop one of those for 25 yards to hit the Over.
3
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson UNDER 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jackson (back, knee) is dealing with injuries and has the talent around him that he isn’t required to run by design – a career first thanks to King Henry’s arrival. Sean Payton has a long history of coaching against dual-threat quarterbacks and will make sure if Jackson kills the Denver Broncos defense, it will be with his arm, not his legs.
2
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott OVER 265.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a big number – one that Prescott hasn’t come close to in three of his last four games. However, there are two reasons for this projection: the Cowboys rushing offense and the Falcons defense. The Cowboys rushing is epically bad – 519 yards in seven games with a long run of 13. If Dallas is going to win, it’ll have to throw a lot. Fortunately for Prescott, the Falcons defense has just six sacks. He will have all day to throw and will do it often.
1
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
Over the last six games, Jefferson hasn’t had fewer than 81 receiving yards in any of them. With the primetime spotlight on, J.J. is certain to be a focal point of the offense against the Indianapolis Colts. If Joe Flacco can get Indy’s offense clicking, the Vikings will need to keep pace and that will require a steady diet of feeding the ball to Jefferson.
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