For this week’s prop bets, we take a first-ballot Hall of Famer hitting Under, a wide receiver with three TDs in the last two games adding to that total, and a quarterback, running back and wide receiver all going Over their respective projections.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Rodgers has been under this number twice this season, and it took 42 pass attempts for him to hit 225 yards last week against Denver. Rodgers is a chess master, but the Minnesota Vikings defense has a specific defensive package in place to confuse him.
If the Jets intend to beat the Vikings, it will likely be with a heavy dose of the ground game, which will limit Rodgers’ chances for downfield chunk plays.
4
San Francisco 49ers RB Jordan Mason OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
When Mason started the season replacing Christian McCaffrey, all he was asked to do is run the ball, not be a dual-threat centerpiece. Over the last couple of games, Mason has caught two passes in each game. It isn’t much, but it’s something.
Given his hard-nosed running style against an Arizona Cardinals defense allowing more than 350 yards a game, if Mason gets the ball cleanly twice on screens or checkdowns, he should blow past this number.
3
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Justin Fields OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115)
The Steelers offensive line is a mess, and the Cowboys defense is hobbled. Pittsburgh’s O-line woes should impact the running game more than the passing attack, and Fields may find himself forced to throw.
Over his last two games, Fields has thrown for 245 and 312 yards, respectively. Asking him to throw for 187 yards isn’t asking a lot going up against a Dallas defense without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
2
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase scores a touchdown (+115)
Chase has scored three touchdowns in his last two games and has two touchdowns in his last meetings with the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore plays man coverage more than most defenses, and Chase only needs to get loose one time from anywhere on the field to cash in. If you believe the Ravens are going to win, the Bengals will need to throw to stay in the games, which typically means big downfield shots to Chase.
1
Houston Texans WR Stefon Diggs OVER 5.5 receptions (+105)
The Diggs Revenge Tour continues. Earlier this year, he had an O/V of 4.5 receptions against the Minnesota Vikings at essentially even money. Diggs caught 10 passes in 34-7 loss. This week is a more recent reason for Diggs to have a Festivus-style airing of grievances.
Those setting the line don’t want the line at 5.5, because six receptions pays back more than the investment (Under 5.5 receptions is -140). If the Buffalo Bills are going to double anyone it will be Nico Collins. Diggs in single coverage should catch seven passes (or more).
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