We’ve had a chance to see all 32 teams in Week 1, so there is a little more data to work with when it comes to doing player Over/Under prop numbers.
For this week, we’re going with home cookin’ – good or bad – with guys playing in front of a friendly crowd. We have two NFC team centerpieces going under their yardage projections, two perennial Pro Bowlers who played each other last week going over their projections, and another former Pro Bowl player to score a touchdown on Monday night.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith scores a touchdown (+180)
The Eagles offense has been potent coming out of the gate. Smith had a big Week 1, taking a lot of snaps out of the slot and leading the Eagles with seven receptions for 84 yards against the Green Bay Packers. With the Falcons coming to Philly on Monday night and A.J. Brown being ruled out with a hamstring injury, quarterback Jalen Hurts may depend more on Smith to be his big-play receiver.
4
Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (-120)
Conner is going up against a Los Angeles Rams team that has consistently bottled him up and made the Cardinals use others to be effective. In five games against the Rams as a Cardinal, Conner has rushed for 50 yards or less in four of them, and the only game he had that topped this number was 69 yards.
Last week, Conner had 16 rushing attempts against the Buffalo Bills and gained just 50 yards. He may need more than 15 carries to approach this number this week.
3
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff UNDER 268.5 passing yards (-115)
This isn’t an indictment against Goff going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions are a prohibitive favorite. If the game plays out as expected (Detroit winning by more than a touchdown), you could see a scenario that plays out all too often – the team with the lead quits throwing for the most part and runs the ball to kill the clock.
Detroit is uniquely qualified to dominate on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, which could make Goff topping his number extremely difficult.
2
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-125)
You need to invest a little more than normal for this bet, but the Chiefs have a history with the Cincinnati Bengals – the only team with a solid track record against Kansas City in recent years.
It’s rare when Kelce isn’t a major part of Kansas City’s offense in back-to-back weeks. In Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, Kelce was targeted just four times, catching three passes for 34 yards. Don’t expect history to repeat itself this time around. The Chiefs want to dominate, and that requires a healthy dose of Kelce.
1
Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry OVER 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
Many questioned how Henry would fit in an offense that doesn’t cater to his style of lining up seven yards behind the quarterback. Week 1 didn’t change that perception, as Henry gained just 46 yards on 13 carries.
That was against Kansas City, where the Ravens were playing from behind and looking for big plays. Against the Las Vegas Raiders at home, it should be a completely different story – playing from ahead and looking to end the game. That could mean 20 carries or more for Henry.
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