We’ve identified five Week 1 prop bets that look very promising. We have a bruising running back scoring a touchdown, two veteran players hitting under their projection, and two of the top wide receivers in the league going over their projected numbers.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor scores a touchdown (+100)
Taylor scored one of more touchdowns in each of his last seven games in 2023, including a massive 30-188-1 line against Week 1 opponent Houston. He posted at least one touchdown in each of his last five games against the Texans, and Houston allowed more rushing touchdowns last year (19) than passing TDs (17). If there is an opponent that looks like a strong choice, it has to be Taylor going up against Houston.
4
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 246.5 passing yards (-115)
Cousins is making his Falcons debut and big things are expected. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense isn’t the ideal candidate for a big passing game. The Steelers are going to try to control the clock on the ground and with the short-passing game, and the Falcons are likely to counter with a rushing attack of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Steelers allowed 227 passing yards a game last season and have made defensive improvements, which should make it difficult for Cousins to thrive, especially if the running games grind out the clock for much of the contest.
3
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Cleveland Browns had the best pass defense in the league last season, but they didn’t face Lamb. No wide receiver is given the volume of targets that Lamb does and it results in consistent production. In his final 12 games last season, Lamb had 98 or more receiving yards in eight of them. Lamb will get a lot of defensive attention, but he always does and that doesn’t prevent Dak Prescott from targeting him early and often. He should get six or more receptions, which typically would be enough to top this number.
2
Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery UNDER 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
Montgomery was the primary rusher for the Lions last year, but Jahmyr Gibbs is going to cut into his time more this season, which will create a more equal time share. There are too many scenarios that could turn this game into a pass-happy affair. If the Lions get behind early, they won’t abandon the run, but it will likely mean more Gibbs than Montgomery, because the former is a more explosive receiver. Montgomery may need 13 to 15 carries to hit this number and that may be asking too much against the Rams.
1
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 96.5 receiving yards (-115)
Hill is a notoriously strong starter in season openers. Over the last three years in Week 1, Hill has been targeted 42 times, catching 30 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns. The Jacksonville Jaguars ranked 26th in pass defense last season and are going with a pres- coverage scheme that struggles against what Hill does best. This is a high number to reach, but when you have averaged almost 170 yards a game in Week 1 over the last three years, it’s understandable why Hill should be expected have a big game.
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