We’re closing in determining who will play in this year’s Super Bowl, and we have selected five prop bets for players who will be critical to getting their teams to the final game of the season. We take three tight ends we’re expecting big things from, a quarterback whose Over/Under may be a bit too high, and an underappreciated running back who has earned his stripes this season.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (-105)
Kelce is always a threat to score, but in the playoffs, he’s almost automatic. He has scored a touchdown in each of his last four playoff games, as well as catching eight TDs in his last seven games and 13 in his last 10 games. When the Chiefs need a playoff touchdown, Kelce is their first choice, much less when there are question marks as to whether Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury will keep him in the pocket more – adding to Kelce’s value.
4
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 277.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a big number and one that Burrow doesn’t surpass that often because of the balance in the Bengals offense. He has thrown for 278 yards or more in just three of his last 11 games, which is telling because the Bengals are on a 10-game winning streak. That tells you the team is more successful when Burrow isn’t throwing 40 or more times. In their two playoff wins this season, Burrow has yardage totals of 209 and 242 yards. While the Kansas City Chiefs defense can be had, the most likely way Burrow tops this number is if his team falls behind early and has to pass.
3
Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-115)
Sanders doesn’t get the credit he deserves in being able to help control a game with his legs. He has topped this number in 13 of 18 games this season, including eight of 10 home games. Last week, he ran 17 times for 90 yards, despite sharing the workload, because the Eagles built a big lead. He has rushed 12 or more times in 14 of 18 games and won’t need many more than 12 carries to hit this number. Both the Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers are going to try to control the game flow by a heavy dose of running (it’s how both offenses are built), and Sanders will be front and center in that regard for Philly.
2
Cincinnati Bengals TE Hayden Hurst OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Kansas City Chiefs’ pass defense is the primary weakness of the team, and they have been exploited by teams with timing-based passing games. With all the attention going to Cincy’s “Big 3” wide receivers, Hurst has enjoyed postseason success. He has topped this number in both of his playoff games – 45 yards against the Ravens and 59 yards against the Bills. Both of those defenses are better than the Chiefs, and the opportunities will be there for Hurst to make plays downfield in single coverage running away from defenders.
1
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to blitz Brock Purdy all day long, and the best responses to blitzing are a hot read over the middle off the snap or screen passes. Kittle is a master at taking advantage of linebacker and safety coverage – he has averaged almost 19 yards per reception in the postseason. He may only need three or four receptions and break one for a big play in the open field to surpass this number, and Purdy will be counting on him more times than that.
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