It’s kind of sad that the season-long struggle to make it to the playoffs can be negated by weather. Record-setting low temperatures are expected in Kansas City, talent can be negated by Mother Nature, which isn’t fair, but those are the rules you play by in January. Buffalo-Pittsburgh was moved to Monday to avoid weather-related emergency concerns.
For Super Wild Card Weekend, we have a couple of veterans going under their number, a couple of emerging young stars going Over, and the most reliable postseason scorer finding the end zone again.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco UNDER 269.5 passing yards (-115)
Flacco has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his last four games, including 368 against the Texans in Week 16. However, in that game, C.J. Stroud wasn’t playing and Case Keenum threw two interceptions before being benched. The Browns ran 75 plays in that game and Amari Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards. The Texans aren’t going to get run out of their own building twice – in Week 16, the Browns had a 36-7 lead at one point. Flacco will get his, but for two playoff-novice franchises, if they can run, they will stick to it.
4
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
Editor’s note: Since this was written, the game has been moved to Monday to avoid a major storm. It’s still forecasted to be snowy and windy, and the thought process remains intact: Forecasts are calling for active snow during the game. That takes away the deep passing game and puts the focus on the running game – steering defenders who have no footing where they want them to go. Cook has had 16 or more carries in five of his last seven games. He will be the Bills’ rushing game on what should be a snowy field in a game in which running the ball will make much more sense than passing. Cook should get 20 carries, especially if the Bills are ahead. He should beat this number by 20 yards.
3
Green Packers RB Aaron Jones under 72.5 rushing yards (-110)
The betting line on this one implies the expectation is that Jones running the ball will be a focus of the Packers offense. But if Green Bay – the youngest team in the league – finds itself behind by 14 points, running the ball won’t be an option. To hit this number, Jones will likely need more than 15 carries. Jordan Love could easily throw 40 passes in this game, not leaving a lot of room for error if the Packers are behind. Former Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy will bleed clock as much as he can if he has a lead, and it doesn’t look likely that the Packers will have an option to run in the final 25 minutes of the game.
2
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua OVER 6.5 receptions (+120)
Seven receptions in a game are never easy. Nacua has accomplished that feat just once in his last 10 games, but Matthew Stafford is looking to make a point against the team that will put him in their Ring of Honor. The Rams’ offensive philosophy will try to force the Lions to keep pace in a game that has an Over/Under north of 50 points. Nacua and Cooper Kupp could both catch eight or more passes, because the Rams are going to put the ball up 40-plus times – of the five playoff he teams he faced for a full game, he never threw less than 37 passes. Nacua will have a workload.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (+100)
Bettors have cashed in on this postseason bet with too much regularity to ignore. There’s never a sure thing when betting, but Kelce scoring a touchdown for the initiated is about as close as it gets. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six postseason games and has a TD in 11 of his last 13. The Chiefs may be playing their last home game of the season, and the ability to get Kelce repeating history like few ever have in this category is just too much to pass up.
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