With a lot on the line in all realms of football, prop bets have to step up to keep up. This week’s picks are asking five Pro Bowl-pedigree players to do what they do.
We have a touchdown machine from the past restarting his engine, a pair NFC West elite players going over their projection, an under-fire quarterback going Under, and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend closing out 2023 on a high note.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
The caveat here is to check on Metcalf’s status prior to kickoff since he’s questionable with a back injury. The Seahawks are currently a playoff team, and Metcalf is their big-play guy. He is averaging 16.6 yards per reception and is playing at home against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is clinging to playoff life by a thread. Given his season-long stats, if Metcalf catches four passes, he should top this number. With their playoff hopes on the line, if he doesn’t catch seven passes there is something wrong.
4
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp scores a touchdown (+100)
Kupp being at even money to score a touchdown hasn’t happened often over the last three years, so be happy it’s available against the Giants. Over the last five games since returning to the lineup, Matthew Stafford has thrown 14 touchdowns. That’s just a tick under three a game. If he throws three touchdown passes against the New York Giants, who won’t step up and say that Kupp gets one of them for even money?
3
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Chiefs have been shooting themselves in the feet over the last couple months and are guaranteed that the playoffs aren’t coming through Arrowhead after the Wild Card Round. Now, they just need to lock down their spot. They have some bad blood with the Cincinnati Bengals, who beat them in the regular season the last two years when KC was coasting to the No. 1 seed. For Kelce, 10 catches isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
2
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott UNDER 285.5 passing yards (-115)
Prescott hasn’t hit this number in his last three games, and there are more scenarios in which he doesn’t again in this one. If Detroit wants to win this game, it will need to run the ball. There are few things that impact a game more than a couple of 12-play drives resulting in field goals. This is a playoff game come early. If the Cowboys are ahead, they will play ball control, like the Detroit Lions. Look at Mike McCarthy’s history. The only way this number should get passed is if Dallas is behind by 14 points at some point and has to throw by force rather than design.
1
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)
McCaffrey has topped this number in each of his last five games, and the one game in his last seven that he didn’t top this he had 21 carries to get there. There are too many reasons why McCaffrey should get 20 attempts in this game against a Washington Commanders defense that is allowing 4.6 yards a carry. That adds up to more than he needs – much less for a player who has rushed for 93 or more yards in his last five games – and averaged 114. If there was justice in the NFL, McCaffrey would be the league MVP. Another 100-yard performance Sunday helps make the case.
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