Week 14 is going to be a critical week to loosen the logjam of teams in playoff contention, and this week’s picks are going to be critical for each of their teams even improving or injury their playoff standing.
The picks include one of the most prolific scorers adding another touchdown, a returning superstar making his presence felt, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend having a big day, the hottest quarterback in the league cooling off, and a prodigal son coming home for some revenge.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
4
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-110)
The Chiefs are coming off a rare December loss and are looking to get back on track. Nailing seven receptions in a game is never easy – and why the Under costs more. Kelce has done it only once in the last five games, but that one was against the Philadelphia Eagles in a game with a lot of playoff hype to it. Buffalo is approaching desperation and could come out with the plan of throwing constantly and forcing the issue. The Chiefs will be without Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), which will put more of the onus on the pass game. This typically means a heavy dose of Kelce, who has caught eight passes in both of his last two games against the Bills.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans scores a touchdown (+100)
Few quarterbacks have locked on one receiver more than Baker Mayfield has with Evans. He has scored 10 touchdowns, while the next top-two pass catchers in the offense (Chris Godwin and Rachaad White) have combined to score two TDs. Through 12 games, Evans has had only three games in which he hasn’t scored at least one touchdown. Getting even-money return is too hard to pass up on a bet that has hit 75% of the time, including a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7.
2
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
Las Vegas Raiders opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 90.6 and completed almost 70% of their passes. Jefferson has been given a lot longer to rehab his injury because he will reset the bar for wide receiver pay, and an injury puts that in jeopardy. After eight weeks gone, Jefferson is back. In the four full games he played before his Week 5 hamstring injury, his yardage totals were 150, 159, 149 and 85. Kirk Cousins is gone, but the best young receiver in the league needs only 66 yards. Yes, please!
1
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott UNDER 302.5 passing yards (-115)
This bet is similar to take Over 30 points on Thursday night’s game. Too many things have to happen favorably for Prescott to throw for 303 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s topped this number in four of his last six games – including 374 yards in Week 9 at Philly – and had 299 yards in the other. But the problem is 300 passing a game is not sustainable. If the Cowboys get a big lead early, the clock becomes an ally and the running game gets more emphasis. If the game is back-and-forth but close, the one 14-play, nine-minute drive could make this number too daunting. The only scenarios this works is a 38-35 games or the Cowboys getting behind by 14 early.
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