Six teams are out on bye, but there are still 13 games to make prop bets from. This week, the picks are all road warriors – five guys going into hostile environments. That doesn’t always end well, so we’re mixing it up with two picks to go Over, two picks to go Under, and a future Hall of Famer scoring a touchdown.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Atlanta Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier UNDER 32.5 rushing yards (-120)
Allgeier’s contribution to the offense has been in decline as the Falcons look to keep their playoff hopes alive with Bijan Robinson being the primary rushing threat. After splitting carries for most of the season, over the last two games, Robinson has 38 carries to just 19 for the second-year pro. Allgeier’s usage has been insignificant on the road all season. In five games away from Atlanta, his rushing totals have been 12, 16, 59, 31 and 31. The arrow isn’t pointing in Allgeier’s direction.
4
Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen scores a touchdown (-110)
The Chargers are desperate, and the Patriots are quietly tanking. The key to this bet is strictly volume. Allen has always been a volume target everywhere on the field, and it has been even more pronounced recently. In the last three games, Allen has been targeted 46 times, catching 35 passes for 397 yards and three touchdowns. The days of Bill Belichick taking away an opponent’s top threat are over. This is a good return on investment for a guy who should score at least once.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Evans has been consistent all season when it comes to his target share in the Bucs offense. He is averaging five catches a game and hasn’t had a week with fewer than three receptions while posting five or more in seven appearances. The critical part to this consistency is that Evans is averaging 15.7 yards a catch. If he catches five passes, he tops this number – and Evans has done it three weeks in a row.
2
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey UNDER 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
McCaffrey is going to have 100 scrimmage yards – it’s what he does. But this is not the matchup for him to have a big game as a runner. The primary objective of the Eagles defense is going to be to force Brock Purdy to do damage. As a result, expect the Eagles to flood the running lanes to limit what McCaffrey can do. He will get his yardage, but it is more likely to be 60 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving than a heavy dose of the running game.
1
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 7.5 receptions (+110)
Expecting a receiver to catch eight passes to win a bet is asking a lot, which is why the return on investment is so solid. But, St. Brown is having the type of season Cooper Kupp had in 2021. St. Brown has caught eight or more passes in three straight games and five of his last six. He catches passes in bunches and is rarely held down. It’s asking a lot, but money has been made consistently the last couple years taking St. Brown and the Over.
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