We have all teams to choose from – a rarity over the last two months. For this week’s picks, we take a pair of running backs to top their projections, a Pro Bowl quarterback with an overinflated number he has no reason to hit, arguably the best wide receiver in the league shining in primetime, and a famous boyfriend continuing a career trend.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook OVER 50.5 yards (-115)
Spotting trends is a skill. Cook has alternated big games with down games. In his last eight games, his rushing totals have been 82, 32, 111, 44, 80, 20, 107, and 20. Trends say he’s due to blow past this number – much less against a Detroit Lions defense that is banged up on the front seven. This is going to be a back-and-forth game. As long as one team isn’t ahead by more than two scores, the running game will be in play, and Cook will cook.
4
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 277.5 passing yards (-115)
Burrow has been on fire through the air – four straight games over 300 yards with three of those way over. But those were against legitimate competition, where lighting them up aerially was necessary. Sadly, the Tennessee Titans are not. The Bengals should win this game by two touchdowns and spend much of the second half milking the clock on the ground, making Burrow’s passing prowess unneeded.
3
Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Packers have figured their best path as a playoff team that is third in their own division with a 9-4 record: run Jacobs a lot. Over his last four games, Jacobs has rushed 81 times with never fewer than 18 carries in any game. The Seattle Seahawks average 4.7 yards allowed to everyone who has rushed against them. If Jacobs hits the average, he needs only 16 carries to top that number.
2
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (+155)
Sometimes history is your guide on prop bets, especially with Kelce. If you bet on him scoring a TD in the postseason every game, you get paid off 75% of the time, for example. The same is true when he faces the Cleveland Browns. In four career games, he has scored a touchdown in all of them and two TDs in two of those. This one works for me … again.
1
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Vikings played the Chicago Bears three weeks ago and Jefferson had just two catches for 27 yards. In the two games since, he has 14 catches for 231 yards. The Vikings are at home on Monday night and are going to force-feed the ball to Jefferson, whether it’s a deep shot or a bubble screen. If you can get a better return on investment laying 100.5 yards, you might want to consider it.
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