Maybe it’s the tryptophan still talking, but the numbers this weekend look leaning to take the Over on four of them for good reason. And, in the other bet, we have a dynamic player who needs signature moments looking to make one with a touchdown.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Falcons are coming off their bye and as rested as they’re going to be. The Los Angeles Chargers defense was gassed on Monday night by the Baltimore Ravens, who ran 37 times for 212 yards. The Falcons are going to test the reserves of the Chargers defense, and Robinson doesn’t need a lot of help to halve this number with one burst.
4
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson scores a touchdown (+180)
Richardson was benched and reinstated. For a young quarterback, that is Strike 1. If the Colts get inside the red zone – which happens often against the New England Patriots – don’t be shocked to see Richardson try to make a big play with his legs instead of his arm. His internal clock was shortened by management.
3
Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
There are a lot of reasons why this number is this low. The Vikings are allowing only 75 rushing yards a game. Conner has just 41 rushing yards in his last two games. But, the Cardinals are going to feed Conner – he has 16 or more carries in seven of 11 games. If he gets close to 15, he passes this number.
2
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts OVER 230.5 passing yards (-115)
The only thing that is going to prevent the Baltimore Ravens from making a deep run to the Super Bowl is their pass defense. The Ravens allow 297 pass yards a game to every QB they face, on average. Hurts hasn’t topped this number in his last four games, which explains why it is so low. However, Baltimore’s porous pass defense will be exploited. He doesn’t need to run the show. 231 yards is game management.
1
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua OVER 6.5 receptions (+105)
Any time Nacua gets a bigger return than investment, it gets your attention. Much less when it’s asking him to catch seven or more passes. He’s done in four of the five games since returning from injury, and he was hurt in the first half of the only one he didn’t. The New Orleans Saints are on life support to make the playoffs, and Matthew Stafford doesn’t care. He’s locked on Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and it can’t be stopped. They will both catch seven.
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