This week, we have a focus on the AFC South, making three of our five prop bet projections on teams from that division. For our picks, we have three players going Over their projection, a controversial Under projection, and a redemption story player scoring a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley scores a touchdown (+140)
In his Jaguars debut, Ridley played like a WR1 despite being new to the offense. He led the Jaguars receivers across the board in targets (11), receptions (7) and yards (101), also scoring a touchdown. The Jags are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off a stinging Week 1 home loss. Patrick Mahomes is likely going to come out slinging, and the Jaguars will have to respond in kind. In a game anticipated to be high scoring, this is a good return on investment that Ridley gets in on the scoring.
4
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson OVER 197.5 passing yards (-115)
Richardson had a strong debut, throwing for 223 yards against a Jacksonville defense that is much better than the Houston Texans defense he will be facing Sunday. Without Jonathan Taylor, the Colts running backs struggled badly (16 carries for just 25 yards) in Week 1. The return of Zack Moss (arm) should help, but the Colts proved they can move the ball effectively through the air, and Richardson should be able to top 200 passing yards.
3
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 85.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Over/Under numbers on Henry are always high because he so consistently has 20 or more carries a game. In the season opener against the New Orleans Saints, Henry had just 15 carries for 63 yards, and the Titans lost that game. Last year against this week’s opponent (Los Angeles Chargers), Henry rushed 21 times for 104 yards – the second straight meeting with the Chargers than he has rushed 20-plus times for 90-plus yards. The third time is the charm. If Tennessee wants to avoid starting 0-2, a big dose of Henry is needed.
2
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields UNDER 60.5 rushing yards (-120)
It’s always difficult to take the Under on a quarterback who runs as often and effectively as Fields. However, when the bar gets raised to needing more than 60 rushing yards, that’s asking a lot. He has a history with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who throttled Minnesota’s run game in Week 1. When they met last year, the Bucs put a spy on Fields. He ran eight times but gained just 38 yards. He is capable of making up half of the needed yards on one scramble, but the Bucs defense is going to go the extra mile to keep him in the pocket.
1
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away an opponent’s most explosive threat, but in two games with the Dolphins, Hill caught 12 passes and went over this number once and under it once. What makes Hill such a fun player for prop bets is that he can pick up 50 yards on one reception and is always a threat to go Over. If he catches six passes – his average as a Dolphin against the Patriots – it will be hard to keep him under this number. Also, New England may be without its best defensive back in coverage.
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