This week we go running back-heavy with three picks – one to score a touchdown, one to go over his rushing projection, and another going over a shockingly low receiving number for his skill set and history.
Our other two picks are a first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback people hate to bet against because of past history and a playmaking wide receiver who routinely slaps around those who choose to project him under a prescribed betting line.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco scores a touchdown (+100)
Pacheco has scored touchdowns in two of his last three games and is averaging 16 carries a game since taking over for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This week, he gets the hapless Houston Texans on a dry track. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs score five touchdowns in this game. If that happens, it’s hard to figure a scenario where Pacheco isn’t involved with at least one of them as a runner or receiver.
4
Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Eagles haven’t been looking ahead to their showdown with Dallas. They’ve been beating opponents into submission and the Chicago Bears are the next to feel the pain. In the recent roll of blowout wins over the Titans and Giants, Sanders has played a huge role. He has scored 11 touchdowns this season, including five in his last three games. He is getting used more than at any time in his career. If the Eagles get an early lead, they’ve been letting Sanders lead the way, and the Bears defense isn’t equipped to stop him.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady UNDER 276.5 passing yards (-115)
I understand why this number is as high as it is, because Brady has topped it in six of 13 games. But the Cincinnati Bengals bring pressure that will test the Bucs’ injury-ravaged offensive line and make Brady get rid of the ball quickly. In the last two weeks, he has completed 70 passes for 534 yards. At that rate, he will have to complete (not throw, complete) 36 passes. If he drops to pass 50 times (a minimum number to expect 36 completions), the Bengals defense will be arrested for assault after the game.
2
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
In his first meeting with the Buffalo Bills, Hill left the game with an injury, catching just two passes for 33 yards. Miami is looking to make a statement and the best way to do that is to get the ball in Hill’s hands as many times as possible. If that means bubble screens and quick-hitters, so be it. I think he is going to catch a minimum of five or six passes. He only needs to pop one of those for 20-30 yards to go over this number. Throw in that he’s used to playing in the cold, he won’t be intimidated … or denied.
1
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kamara hasn’t been explosive in the passing game this season by his standards, but he is a much better player at home – where he gets the pedestrian Atlanta Falcons this week. He has topped this number in four of the five home games he has played, including a pair of games with more than 90 receiving yards. The NFC South is somehow still up for grabs for everybody because they’re all that bad, so if the Saints want to keep their slim hopes alive, it will require Kamara being key in both the run and pass game. A 32-yard receiving requirement? Yes, please!
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