We’re down six teams this week, so prop options are fewer the standard number of options. Yet, we found a handful that are promising – the most dangerous receiver in the league catching a touchdown, a Hall of Famer not making it to a lofty passing number, and three Pro Bowlers getting Over/Under numbers they should be able to surpass – if not blow past.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
The 49ers are in a scary position after losing two quarterbacks and now have to rely on Brock Purdy to lead the way. There’s an old NFL adage that a good tight end is young quarterback’s best friend. They run short routes, find soft spots in defenses and give a young QB a quick outlet. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kittle catches a half-dozen passes against a blitzing Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. If he does, it will be almost impossible not to hit this pee-wee number.
4
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill scores a TD (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been tattooed all season, and there will likely be 80 passes thrown in this game. Hill is a lethal deep threat and capable of scoring every time he touches the ball. He’s one of my favorites for this bet, because it can happen at any time and you expect it when it does.
3
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 273.5 passing yards (-115)
The Broncos allow just 185 passing yards a game despite having an offense that stinks out loud and can’t sustain drives. Opponents earn everything they get against this defense. In their last four meetings, Mahomes has surpassed this number just once and has averaged 243 yards a game. There aren’t a lot of scenarios where the Chiefs will be throwing on most downs in the second half, making it difficult for Mahomes to hit this lofty number despite being more than capable of doing so.
2
Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
In seven career games against the Lions, Cook has averaged 105 rushing yards. In their first meeting this season, he rushed 17 times for 96 yards. Many are viewing this as a “trap game” for the 10-2 Vikings, and they may be right. The best way to prevent that is having Cook run 20 times. He has averaged 20 carries a game in his last four meetings (all Vikings wins). If he gets to 20 carries in this one, this number is way too low.
1
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Bills lead the AFC East but have the worst in-division record of all four teams (1-2) with losses to the Dolphins and New York Jets. They need this game for multiple reasons and Josh Allen will lock on to Diggs by force, not choice. In his last three games against the Jets, Diggs has yardage totals of 93, 81 and 162 yards. There’s no reason to think that will change in this critical game.
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