As we reach the Elite Eight portion of the NFL playoffs, we’re looking at an elite receiver topping his yardage projection, a quarterback hitting Under his yardage projection by design, two running backs in the same game hitting Over, and one of the most prolific scorers in playoff history continuing his prolificity.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
All eyes are going to be on the clash of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen when the Bills host the Baltimore Ravens, but the running backs will be just as critical. In the 2023 regular season, Cook had just two games with 18 or more carries. In two playoff games, he had 18 carries in both. In the regular season this year, he never had more the 20 carries. In last week’s win, he had 23 carries and didn’t play the fourth quarter. When the Bills get to the playoffs, Cook gets the chance to cook.
4
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-120)
When the Lions face a tough opponent, St. Brown’s production goes up. He had four games this season with more than 100 receiving yards. Three of them came against playoff teams, including 119 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 112 against the Minnesota Vikings and 193 against the Buffalo Bills. In last year’s playoffs, St. Brown caught 22 passes for 274 yards in three games. When the Lions are in a defining game, St. Brown is at the center of the action.
3
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 206.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a prediction based on game plans. The Eagles are better when Hurts isn’t throwing the ball around. He has thrown 25 or fewer passes in nine of his last 11 games – the one game the Eagles didn’t win in that span was when Hurts was knocked out early. To beat the Washington Commanders, the Eagles are going to lean into the Hurts-Saquon Barkley tandem. With snow expected, dominating in the running game is a distinct possibility.
2
Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-120)
This is a big number, but it’s big for a reason. The Ravens had to fight to win a division title, much less catching the No. 2 seed it earned by Henry rushing for 199 yards in their September beat-down of Buffalo. The Ravens have figured out their path to the Super Bowl, and it includes King Henry rushing 20-plus times. In his last four games (three against playoff teams), Henry has rushed 97 times for 633 yards. The math abides.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (+150)
Dating back to 2018, in a full 17-game postseason slate, Kelce has scored 18 touchdowns. He has scored in 13 of those games. If you have bet on Kelce scoring a touchdown in each of them, you have gone to the pay window 76.5% of the time. On lines that are set to be a 50/50 proposition, why wouldn’t Patrick Mahomes lock in on Kelce in the red zone? It’s second nature to them – and a 50% return on investment.? Yes, please!
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