For this week’s picks, we have two MVP front-runners hitting Over their projections, a pair of NFC North running backs splitting their Over/Under projections, and elite scorer hitting the end zone simply because he’s on the road.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jackson has rushed more often as the Ravens needed to stack wins down the stretch. He has eight or more carries in four of his last six games and has 63 or more rushing yards in four of his last five outings. As Jackson looks to erase his struggles both against the Pittsburgh Steelers and in the playoffs, look for him to go back to basics and trust his legs to get the job done (especially with top downfield weapon Zay Flowers unavailable).
4
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115)
Allen didn’t top this number in his last three games, but he didn’t need to against the New York Jets or New England Patriots. In his last three games against playoff teams (the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions) he has blown past this number. Against the Denver Broncos, the Bills’ running game will face a stiff challenge that will likely require Allen to use his rifle arm.
3
Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones UNDER 58.5 rushing yards (-120)
Jones is dealing with a quad injury and had just 22 carries in critical games against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to close the regular season. He didn’t hit this number when the Vikings played the Los Angeles Rams the first time and had 19 carries. Jones isn’t 100%, and this game offers a tantalizing revenge play for backup RB Cam Akers, who will be motivated to show out against his former team.
2
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin scores a touchdown (+120)
“Scary Terry” has never received the justice he deserves as being one of the elite wide receivers in the league. Five straight 1,000-yard seasons should get more notice. All that was missing from his game was that he wasn’t a prolific touchdown scorer – until he met Jayden Daniels. In eight road games this season, McLaurin scored nine touchdowns, including three appearances with two TDs. “The Road Warrior” will be needed against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if Washington wants to escape with a win.
1
Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Packers’ offensive identity is Jacobs, not Jordan Love. Jacobs has topped this number in eight of his last 11 games. In his Week 1 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles, he rushed for 84 yards. The talk all week has been about the quarterbacks, but it will be Jacobs and Saquon Barkley as the performers to watch. If Green Bay wants to leave Philly with a win, Jacobs will be critical, and he should blow past this number.
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