In what is arguably the best two days in sports, the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs ranks right up there at the top. A case can be made for all eight remaining teams moving on.
That said, we have both AFC games hitting Over, an absurdly high number in the NFC hitting Under, a solid home favorite standing tall, and a wager that should be on the moneyline isn’t the bet because the point spread provides better return.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: Take OVER 41.5 points (-115)
These teams met in Week 16 and it was a classic 2024 Chiefs win – they took advantage of two C.J. Stroud interceptions in a 27-19 victory. There are way too many scenarios that drives this game Over. If the Texans score an early touchdown, the champs are put on notice. If the Chiefs score a TD on their first drive, blood is in the water. The only way this game hits Under is if it defined by defense. That isn’t the history associated with Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, and the Texans have enough offensive talent to try to hang with them.
4
Take Philadelphia Eagles and lay 6 points (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-110)
The Rams have been a great comeback story after a brutal start to the season, but the Eagles have won eight straight home games – as well as 13 of their last 14 games. When these teams met in Week 12, the Rams had no answer for Saquon Barkley, who rushed 26 times for 255 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-20 Eagles win in LA. Traveling across the country to play outdoors in the cold will be a big home-field advantage for the run-happy Eagles to control the tempo and the scoreboard.
3
Take Baltimore Ravens and lay 1 point (-110) at Buffalo Bills
The Ravens gutted the Bills 35-10 in Baltimore in Week 4 behind Derrick Henry and a running game that rushed 34 times for 171 yards and two touchdowns. While Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are neck-and-neck for the league MVP, Henry will be the key to the Ravens making a postseason run. This will be a big ask, because Buffalo hasn’t lost at home all season, but an argument can be made that the Ravens are the most complete team in all three phases in the playoffs.
2
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: Take UNDER 55.5 points (-115)
Certain numbers should be an auto-bet – anything lower than 36 points or anything higher than 54.5 points. These teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but too many things have to happen to require it. It will take seven touchdowns and two field goals to hit the Over, which is simply too much to expect. There’s a reason this number is so high – the likelihood that the Lions and Commanders get in a shootout – but just a couple of 12-play drives that eat six or seven minutes will make that task much more difficult.
1
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: Take OVER 51.5 points (-110)
While 55.5 points is asking too much, this number isn’t quite as onerous, especially with these two teams. With Jackson and Allen expected to be doing their thing, plus the big-play ability of both offenses, the best scenario for those betting Over is that one team gets down by 10 or more points early and the fireworks begin. This game has all the hallmarks of an “anything you can do I can do better” matchup and could be an instant classic if both teams live up to their offensive hype.
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