For my money, with the potential exception of the first two days of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, there is no greater two days in sports than the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Six teams had to earn their way there. The two best teams are rested and surrounded by friends waiting for somebody to come to their house trying to take it away from them.
This week’s picks mix it up, taking a game to go Over, one to go Under, both teams rested from their bye making a statement, and an underdog looking to continue its January dominance.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: Take OVER 43.5 points (-110)
The Ravens will be looking to make a statement as the No. 1 seed with the same way they’re earned the top seed – scoring 30 or more points. The Ravens have scored 30-plus points in eight of the last 10 games they played all their starters – including games with four playoff teams (Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins). The Texans have been a great story of resilience, starting 0-2 and having to fight uphill the entire season. C.J. Stroud has been amazing for a rookie stepping in on Day 1, and the Texans have scored 21-plus in eight of their last 10 games as well. If the Texans are behind, they’re going to keep slinging the ball. It may come late in the game, but this one will be hard to keep Under.
4
Take the San Francisco 49ers and lay 9.5 points (-110)
The Green Bay Packers are riding high after blowing the doors off the Dallas Cowboys and jumping out to an early lead they never relinquished. For the youngest team in the NFL, they have yet to be playoff-punched in the mouth. The 49ers will do that. The Packers are a team to be reckoned with in the next couple of years, but the 49ers are a veteran team that beats people up. Of their 12 wins this year, 11 of them have come by 12 points or more – the only one less was a 30-23 Week 2 win at the Rams. Green Bay stunned the world with their domination of Dallas. The rested 49ers on the road will be a much tougher mountain to climb.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Take UNDER 48.5 points (-110)
There is a good reason this number is so high – both offenses can put up points. But Tampa’s win over the free-falling Philadelphia Eagles shouldn’t carry more weight than it deserves. This is a team that scored just 22 total points in its must-win games against the New Orleans and Carolina to get to the playoffs. Dan Campbell has made a reputation for taking risks – many times when he shouldn’t. Detroit has the “last time they won a division title” and “last time they won a playoff game” gorillas off its back last week. The Lions are in position to control the tempo of this game. If they win the opening toss, they may take the ball and try to grind a 15-play drive out because they have the best offensive line in the league. At some point, if the Lions are ahead, there will be a seven- or eight-minute drive. That kills an Over bet more times than not.
2
Take Kansas City Chiefs plus 2.5 points (+100) at Buffalo Bills
In the Patrick Mahomes era of the Chiefs, they have never been a run-balanced, defense-winning team … until this year. I was willing to take the Chiefs on the moneyline at +120 but feel more comfortable at even money at +2.5 points, which may push to three points by game time. In the regular season, the Buffalo Bills have had their way with the Chiefs. Josh Allen is 3-0. Patrick Mahomes is 0-3. In the postseason? Mahomes is 2-0, and Allen is 0-2. The bottom line on this game is that Allen will take more unnecessary chances than Mahomes. If the Chiefs win, it will be because of their defense exploiting Allen’s penchant for bad decisions. Getting two-and-a-hook as insurance in the event of crooked numbers that make a 24-22 final possible.
1
Take Baltimore Ravens and lay 9.5 points (-110) vs. Houston Texans
The Ravens haven’t advanced past the divisional round since 2012 – when Lamar Jackson was 15. As good as the organization has been, it hasn’t been in this position for a long time. Baltimore’s wins at home this season include 25-9 against the Texans, 38-6 against the Lions, 37-3 against the Seattle Seahawks, 34-20 against Cincinnati, and 56-19 against the Dolphins. No other team has the momentum avalanche that the Ravens have proved capable of. If they get ahead by 10 early, history says they will be ahead by 20 at some point.
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