And then there were four.
The AFC and NFC Conference Championship games are upon us and you have storylines-a-plenty coming in. The two top seeds are both healthy favorites, but in the 49 years of playoff seeding since 1975, only 14 Super Bowls have featured the two top-seeded teams – just 28%.
The deletion of one team getting a bye in each conference has played a part in unleveling the playing field. Both No. 1 seeds are the only ones to get a week off, and they played on Saturday at home in the Divisional Round, giving them an additional day of recovery and preparation against teams that have already had to win twice.
The nagging question is whether you believe history will repeat itself two years in a row, and the teams with the bye make it pay off with a trip to the Super Bowl.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Baltimore Ravens and lay 3.5 points (-115) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This number will likely bump to four points by game time, because the line is currently forcing those betting on the Ravens to invest more. The Chiefs of 2023 (now into 2024) are a team built on making the run a prominent part of the offense and a defense that is much improved. Running back Isiah Pacheco (ankle, toe) is likely going to play, but he is clearly injured. Clyde Edwards-Helaire can’t replicate what he does. If the Chiefs offense becomes one-dimensional, it’s not good news for Kansas City.
4
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
The Chiefs defense has made huge strides with a young group and aren’t going to make things easy for the Ravens – who don’t have a postseason pedigree. Considering the relative potency of both offenses, this number seems low. However, the Chiefs are playing on borrowed time, and the Ravens will get conservative once they are in scoring position. Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker will likely have a larger role in who wins and who loses than Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
3
San Francisco 49ers OVER 29.5 points scored (-110)
The 49ers played about as poorly as a team could when playing against the lowest remaining seed last week and still found a way to win by scoring 24 points. If the 49ers don’t shoot themselves in the foot again, 30 points is not far-fetched at all. The Detroit Lions defense is suspect. The 49ers have scored 30 or more points nine times this season and are notorious for getting off to a fast start – they have outscored their opponents 274-166 in the first half of games. The Lions defense has improved but is still vulnerable, especially against the pass, and the 49ers have the offensive weapons in the passing game to exploit that weakness.
2
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 7 points (-120)
When the 49ers win, they tend to win big. During the regular season, San Francisco’s margin of victory in those 12 wins was 23, 7, 18, 19, 32, 31, 13, 18, 23, 12, 16 and 17 points. The Lions have showed that they can get blown out, losing by 32 to the Ravens and 15 to the Chicago Bears. The Lions have the firepower on offense to make enough plays to stay in the game but don’t have the defense to hang with the 49ers on the road for 60 minutes.
1
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Take OVER 51.5 points (-110)
Any O/U north of 50 points is difficult to take, because it often means that the two teams will need to combine to score seven touchdowns or 10 or more times mixing in field goals and TDs. However, the 49ers have the offensive big-play ability to score 30, which will likely force the Lions to try to follow suit. Detroit has multiple downfield weapons and, if Jared Goff gets the time the throw, the Lions should be able to score 20 points or more. It may not come until late in the game, but — despite being a little higher than some bettors like — a score in the range of 34-20 is well within the realm of possibility.
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