The one-and-done life (and death) of the NFL playoffs is afoot, and this week’s picks include a home team defending its turf, a road team getting a win in hostile territory, two games going Over their projection, and the highest projection hitting Under.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Philadelphia Eagles and lay 4.5 points (-110) vs. Green Bay Packers
Both teams have quarterbacks coming back from injury, but both offenses are fueled by their powerful running backs, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. The Eagles have more explosive weapons to augment the running game, and this has the look of a matchup that will feature Philly’s ability to score red-zone touchdowns as being the difference.
4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Take Over 43.5 points (-110)
These teams are heading in opposite directions. The Ravens have won four straight, and the Steelers have lost four consecutive. Baltimore scored 30 or more points in its last four games, which includes facing the Steelers and Houston Texans, and 11 of their last 14 games. Pittsburgh can make enough plays to keep this game close into the second half but will likely need 20 points to stay close, which begs going over this number.
3
Take Los Angeles Chargers and lay 3 points (-105) at Houston Texans
Winning on the road is never easy and few teams are better at that than the Chargers. They have a 7-2 record against the spread away from home and are 5-1 as a road favorite. The Texans are at home because of winning the AFC South, which wasn’t too difficult. The reality is Houston limped down the stretch, losing six of its last 11 games. C.J. Stroud gets sacked too much, and the Chargers defense will set the tone.
2
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 50.5 points (-110)
This is the highest Over/Under of the week, because both teams are routinely lighting up the scoreboard. But, at playoff time, teams are more averse to taking undue risks. For Jayden Daniels and many of the core players for the Commanders, this will be their first postseason game. For the vet-heavy Buccaneers, they haven’t hit Over this number in their last three playoff games. A shootout is possible but not as probable as it appears.
1
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: Take Over 48 points (-105)
The Vikings are coming off their worst game of the year (at the worst time). Prior to Monday’s self-inflicted debacle, Minnesota had scored 23 or more points in its last seven games, averaging 30 a game. The Rams played low-scoring games down the stretch but hit Over this number in each of the last three games against playoff teams. This has a legitimate chance to be the biggest shootout of the Wild Card Weekend.
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