We hit the first big week of the byes with six teams resting up for the stretch run. Of the games remaining from which to choose, we go with a time-honored tradition of taking the bets those making the odds want us (sort of) to take.
This week, we take the two smallest Over/Under numbers, the Over in both, and three road favorites that would have to lay more than twice as many points if they were playing at home.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: Take the Over at 40.5 points (-110)
The line opened at 39.5 and bumped up a point on Thursday. The Colts have consistently hit the Under on the current number (six times in eight games). But these are the Patriots. If New England gets on a roll, they don’t let up. The offensive stars in this one are Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Rhamondre Stevenson, and that assumed the former is healthy enough to go. If each breaks off a couple big runs that lead to points, this number is too low. Either way, if one team gets the lead, they don’t take their foot off the gas. It ain’t Brady-Manning, but the animosity remains.
4
Take Minnesota Vikings and lay 3 points (-115) vs. Washington Commanders
The storyline for this game is Kirk Cousins coming back home to the franchise that raised the bar of QB value by franchising him twice. The bottom line is that the spread dropped from 3.5 to 3. If you think Minnesota is going to win, giving away three points shouldn’t be a deterrent. The Vikings are a disrespected 6-1, but you are what your record says you are. The Vikings find ways to win one-score games. The Commanders will find a way to lose this one.
3
Take Green Bay Packers and lay 3.5 points (-112) vs. Detroit Lions
The Packers are one of the bigger disappointments of 2022, but they’re getting the Lions – losers of five straight and already eyeing the 2023 quarterback crop. In games Aaron Rodgers has played, he has won 18 of 23 times against the Lions, including the last five. Green Bay has lost four straight and Aaron Rodgers will go off-script if necessary. Detroit had this game marked on their schedule in May. Now Green Bay does, too.
2
Take Baltimore Ravens and lay 2.5 points (-115) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Ravens are 5-3 and, if not for implosion, should be 7-1. Giving away less than a field goal on the road in primetime is a risk worth taking. The Saints are in the mix in the mild NFC South, where the awful Falcons lead the way, but they can’t run with the Ravens for 60 minutes. This one should have been four or more points, because Baltimore will have a 10-point lead at some point, and the Saints won’t have an answer.
1
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Take the Over at 42.5 points (-110)
A year ago, this point would be 52.5, not 42.5. I’m not unconvinced that the last two NFC representatives in the Super Bowl don’t pull out all the stops to save their struggling seasons. They have such a recent track record of stringing together wins, that this could end up being a knockout for the losing team. I would have been a buyer at 47.5, so let me kick back on the Over with almost a touchdown to spare.
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