For Week 6, our best bets start in the early-morning hours and don’t end until the day is almost over. Among the projections are a game to go Over, a game to go Under, a game based on a long history, and two huge favorites living up to why they’re giving away so many points.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 9.5 points at Cleveland Browns (-110)
This is a huge number, but the 49ers are simply beating people up. They have scored 30 or more points in every game, have allowed 16 or fewer points in all but one game, and have won by totals of 23, 7, 18, 19 and 32 points. If the Browns were healthy, this could have the whiff of a trap game. But without Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson, this could get ugly early and stay that way.
4
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: Take Under 41.5 points (-110)
Both the Ravens and Titans have scored under this week’s number in four of five games this season. It hasn’t mattered if they’ve won or lost – they’ve done both in low-scoring games. In the ideal scenario for both teams, they run the ball effectively, string together 12-play drives and milk seven or eight minutes off the game clock. It only takes one of them to be effective to drain enough clock time to keep this game Under, especially if the defenses step up in the red zone.
3
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Take Over 42.5 points (-110)
The Lions and Buccaneers rarely play – haven’t since 2020 and have only played three times since 2015. One thing that this unfamiliarity has brought has been high-scoring games. Tampa and Detroit have had their share of ups and downs over the last 15 years, but all nine meetings dating back to 2008 have surpassed this week’s O/U number. Throw in a pair of current offenses capable of making big plays, this matchup has Over written all over it. It may come late from the team down double digits, but 43 points should be scored.
2
Take Buffalo Bills and lay 14.5 points vs. New York Giants (-110)
The elephant in the room is 14.5 points. I get it. But the disparate similarity between the Giants and Bills (Super Bowl animosity aside) is that they have carved a path in 2023 that has defined both of their seasons. When the Giants lose, they get left for dead. Their losses have come by 40, 18, 21 and 15 points. When the Bills win, they leave others for dead. Their wins have been by 28, 34 and 28 points. If you’re down, they still kick. This one seems predestined for the Bills Mafia at night.
1
Take Jacksonville Jaguars and lay 4 points vs. Indianapolis Colts (-110)
In the worst of times, the Jags beat the Colts in Duval County. They went 3-14 in 2021 and beat the Colts in Duval. They went 1-15 in 2020 to get Trevor Lawrence and they beat the Colts in Duval. They went 3-13 in 2016 and beat the Colts in Duval. The Jaguars have won eight straight home games against the Colts and have covered well more than four points in the last six. They’re the better team and have a perfect FICO score. It’s hard to walk away from that.
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