The NFL apologizes for those forced to endure the “Meh!” trifecta of the Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos-San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants in stand-alone games on national TV. It taught us that every game can be different but have a similar theme – a combination of playmaking defense and offensive ineptitude.
But as we get deeper into a season, we see the strengths and weaknesses (often injury-related) of teams that lets us hone in more on games to bet on. This week, we’re taking a moneyline pick for some return on investment, betting on a team that has to win, two games that the point spreads are too high, and another that’s too low.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Take Arizona Cardinals on the moneyline (+102)
The Cardinals are in the spot they’re in because they’ve had to play from behind in every game. They’ve been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter and 80-23 through three quarters. Their problems are correctable. The Carolina Panthers are a 1.5-point favorite despite being viewed as one of the worst rosters in the NFC. The game isn’t in the early window, so it will be a normal start time for the Cardinals. After playing the Kansas City, Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Rams, the Panthers will be a welcomed opponent.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions: Take the UNDER at 47.5 points (-107)
In an ideal world, the goal of both offenses in this one is to control time of possession and field position with the running game. Punts to pin the opponent is in play for both. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Pete Carroll has made a career by running the ball and playing good defense. There is little chance for a shootout, which is why I was stunned when I saw the number. Both teams are capable of multiple double-digit-play drives. If one team gets up by 10 or more, they’re going to take the air out of the ball. Running a lot and throwing short passes doesn’t hit the Over with any regularity.
Take Las Vegas Raiders and lay 2.5 points vs. Denver Broncos (-120)
The Raiders’ 2022 season may literally be on the line with this game. Las Vegas is 0-3 and, to date this season, has found ways to lose instead of win. Denver is somehow 2-1 but hasn’t played like it on offense. There are times when you have to believe that a team that made the playoffs last year is going to play like it this year. The Raiders have a more talented core of players than they did last year. They have to put it together eventually. This should be the game it happens … and they only need to win by a field goal.
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons: Take the UNDER at 46.5 points (-107)
This one is almost a doppelganger of the Seahawks-Lions game. You have two teams with pedestrian quarterbacks and have enjoyed their most success when they’re running the ball as much as throwing. With their defense, I believe the Browns could win big over the Falcons, but if they do get a two-score lead, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will carry the ball 30-35 times – and take 30 seconds off the clock each time. This number has come down two points in the last day, but it’s still two points too high.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers: Take the OVER of 42.5 points (-115)
Since Matthew Stafford came to the Rams, he’s 0-2 against the 49ers, but the Rams have dictated the pace of play in both games – losing 31-10 and 27-24. The Rams had numerous scoring chances in the first game and imploded. Many are of the belief that the 49ers can milk the clock with its run game, but that hasn’t been the case with the Rams. The score of 23-20 hits the Over on this game, and I’m convinced either team is capable of scoring 30, which makes 42.5 a lot more palatable.
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