We’re only one week into the 2023 NFL season and there already are teams nearing panic mode at the prospect of starting the year 0-2. While not a death sentence, it certainly puts them in a hole to dig out of.
For this week, we’re looking at a mixed bag of bets. We have a home dog on the moneyline, a big favorite to cover, a big favorite not to cover, a high-points game to hit the Over, and a high-points game to hit the Under. It’s a little something for everyone.
Note: All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Atlanta Falcons on the moneyline (+105) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are coming off a resounding road win in Chicago and are looking to work that same road magic at Atlanta. The Packers are favorites on the moneyline (-125) but had the 26th-ranked run defense last year. They’re going up against a Falcons team that was third in rushing offense last season, rolling up 131 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns from Tyler Allgeier and rookie Bijan Robinson. The Packers’ struggle to stop the run will be a critical factor in this game.
4
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Take Under 46.5 points (-110)
The Bengals were humbled by the Browns in Week 1, scoring just three points. While that was an anomaly, the Ravens defense isn’t going to be run over. The Over/Under suggests quite a bit of scoring. When these teams play, it’s extremely physical and has led to more field goals than touchdowns. The scores in their meetings hit under this number in both games last year, and six of the last nine games head-to-head. This number seems just a bit too high for offenses that struggled against lesser defenses in Week 1.
3
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: Take Over 47 points (-110)
The Seahawks defense was gutted by a substandard Rams offense in their opener, while Detroit played well against a Chiefs offense without centerpiece Travis Kelce. Both offenses are up-tempo and mix in a lot of throws deep down the field. With defenses that have holes in them, this has the makings of both Jared Goff and Geno Smith having good days and the winner could end up with 30 or more points, which would zoom past this number.
2
Take New York Jets plus-9 points (-110) at Dallas Cowboys
This spread is an overcorrection for the Cowboys blowing out the Giants 40-0 on Sunday night. It was a train that kept picking up speed, and 40-donut games are rarities. New York lost Aaron Rodgers for the season just four plays in and still beat the Buffalo Bills. Why? Because the Jets have one of the most dominating defenses in the league. This point spread is indicative of the Jets being unable to score (the Over/Under is just 39 points). New York’s defense will keep the game within reach and, even if they lose, this has a good chance of being a one-score game.
1
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 7.5 points (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers are a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and are dominant on both sides of the ball. Granted, they’re on the road, but playing indoors under climate-controlled condition with as many Niners fans in the crowd as Rams fans won’t make this feel like a typical road game. Their two meetings last season were both blowouts wins for the 49ers (31-14 and 24-9). Matthew Stafford is going to struggle to get time in the pocket to make downfield deep throws, and the 49ers have everything they need to win by 17, not the 7.5 points they need.
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