Through the first two weeks of the season, we’ve done pretty well with our picks (8-2) because we use all three betting formats – the moneyline, the point spread, and the Over/Under – and this week is no different.
Our picks this week include a pair of winless teams getting their first “W,” a pair of legitimate Super Bowl contenders putting a beatdown on a pair of lesser teams, and a division rivalry game that has an Over/Under that looks a little too high.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Minnesota Vikings and lay 1 point vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-110)
On Wednesday (when I made the decision to pick the Vikings), the Chargers were a one-point favorite. But with RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) not practicing and looking doubtful, the line has flipped. Minnesota has been its own worst enemy so far, committing seven giveaways and having a minus-3 turnover ratio in both games. The Chargers just find ways to lose. If Minnesota doesn’t turn the ball over in front of their home fans coming off a mini-bye week, the Vikings defense will have to collapse not to win this game.
4
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Take the Under of 44.5 points (-110)
The defenses dominated this series last year and neither team is lighting things up offensively to start this year. The Jags and Texans split last season – Jacksonville winning 31-3 and the Texans winning 13-6. Shockingly, the road team won both. I don’t think that will be the case this time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans are at or below their total from both games last year and the Jags don’t make up the difference enough to hit the Over. When 31-13 is still Under, be good with that.
3
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals: Take the Over of 44 points (-110)
I debated just taking the Bengals and laying three points, but as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, the Rams offense is going to do some damage. Puka Nacua may as well be Puka Kupp at this point. The Rams will do their part. The Bengals have question marks with the calf of Joe Burrow, but at 0-2 at home on Monday night, if he can go, he will go, and the Bengals will do their part to hit the Over … and win by seven or more (just sayin’ if you think three points is the safer bet).
2
Take Miami Dolphins and lay 6.5 points (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
The Dolphins have put down the Chargers and the Patriots on the road in their first two games. Now they’re at home against arguably the weakest opponent they’ve faced and favored by less than a touchdown. As long as Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are healthy, the Dolphins are going to put up points that will demand a response. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense can’t keep up with that.
1
Take Philadelphia Eagles and lay 4.5 points (-115) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles have showed streaks of dominance in the first two weeks – they’ve had leads of 16 and 20 points and have finished the games winning by five and six points. Against a surprise 2-0 Buccaneers team, the Eagles have learned that if they don’t keep their foot on the gas, opponents can come back on them. This one has the look of a nightmare for Baker Mayfield.
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