For the final week of the regular season, the picks include one of the most disappointing teams in the league winning its closer, a double-digit favorite covering, a double-digit underdog standing tall, a pair of NFC West rivals hitting Over a small number, and the most important game of the year hitting Under a number that is just too high.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take New York Jets on the moneyline (-105) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins struggle in cold and wind and both are expected at the Meadowlands. Miami is still alive for a playoff berth but won’t play Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets may see Aaron Rodgers as their starter for the last time, and he needs just one TD to hit 500 for his career. With nothing to lose, look for the Jets to pull out all the trickery they can and Rodgers spinning it for a big day in his 2024 (and maybe career) finale.
4
Take Kansas City Chiefs plus 10.5 points (-110) at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs will be benching some key players but not everybody. The Broncos should win this game, but you don’t give the Chiefs that many points. Last year, Kansas City rested a lot more players than is expected this year with a bye coming and beat the Los Angeles Chargers 13-12 behind backup QB Blaine Gabbert. This will be an opportunity for Carson Wentz to prove he still belongs. Even if it requires a touchdown at garbage time that gets the Chiefs within 10, don’t bet against Andy Reid.
3
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: Take Over 39 points (-110)
There are a couple key factors here. Geno Smith has three $2 million bonus escalators in play – one of them being if Seattle wins 10 games. The Rams are resting Matthew Stafford, so backup Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to prove himself. Under ordinary circumstances, this O/U would be seven to 10 points higher. Stafford sitting out shouldn’t impact the number this much, and it’s a number that isn’t hard to top with the big-play weapons both teams boast.
2
Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lay 13.5 points (-110) vs. New Orleans Saints
Six of Tampa Bay’s last seven wins have come by 15 or more points, including a 24-point win over the Saints. New Orleans is hobbled and without a lot of its top players on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay needs to win to get in the playoffs, because only one spot will go to the NFC South. The Buccaneers won’t scoreboard watch, because their only concern will be to take care of their own business. A 20-point win is distinctly possible.
1
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Take Under 57 points (-110)
The early betting is almost 80% on the Over because these two teams never have low-scoring games. Their last six meetings, dating back to 2021, have produced games with 56, 52, 57, 54, 50, and 60 points. That’s a lot, but only one game has gone over this gaudy number. The simple reality is that with so much at stake, neither team is likely to take many high-risk, high-reward plays, and both teams are capable of running 12-play, seven-minute drives. To hit Over will not only require seven touchdowns, it also will need three field goals. That’s a lot to ask when so many scenarios skew downward.
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