It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas around the NFL (because the weather outside is frightful). This has led to some of the lowest Over/Under numbers in recent memory.
This week, we take three teams that need a win over inferior opponents to solidify their playoff stock and the Over in two games – one for two teams used to playing outside late in the season and the other with the highest O/U of the week.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Take the San Francisco 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-113) vs. Washington Commanders
In the seven weeks since the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey, they have found the secret to winning. After starting 3-4, the 49ers have won seven straight. Not only has the offense become more complete, the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any of those games. Washington comes to town having tied and lost to the Giants in their last two games. The 49ers may only have to score 17 points to cover this spread, because their defense is playing so well all they need is for the offense not to screw things up.
4
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: Take the Over of 50 points (-110)
The Packers are on the brink of playoff elimination, and the Dolphins are in free-fall. This has a playoff feel only because the loser may well be dead in the playoff water with a loss. Green Bay has no answer defensively for the speed of the Dolphins receivers and, with the season on the line (and perhaps his last one with the Packers), Aaron Rodgers will come out throwing, especially if the Dolphins big-play offense is clicking early. Fifty is a big number, but one these two teams are very capable of scoring 30, which will have the other team throwing a lot in the second half.
3
Take Los Angeles Chargers lay 4.5 points (-108) at Indianapolis Colts
Few teams have been as frustrating to bet on than the Chargers. The Bolts lose games they shouldn’t, and five of their last six wins haven’t covered this week’s point spread. However, anyone who has seen the Colts recently knows they are capable of historic defensive collapses. In their last two games, they allowed the Cowboys to score 33 points in the fourth quarter and blew a 33-0 lead against the Vikings. The Chargers are an attack offense that won’t let up and 4.5 points isn’t enough to prevent L.A. from running over the Colts.
2
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: Take the Over of 39.5 points (-110)
So many spreads at 40 points or under this week make sense but not with these two teams. They’re accustomed to playing in brutal conditions late in the season and adapting. Personally, I think Buffalo can take care of 75 percent of this number. If the Bears can muster 13 or more points, it will be extremely difficult for the number not be surpassed.
1
Take Cincinnati Bengals and lay 3 points (-118) at New England Patriots
Historically, the Patriots defense takes away an opponent’s most explosive player. However, the Bengals have big-play ability in the pass and run game. After an 0-2 start, the Bengals are 10-2, riding a six-game winning streak and are still in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots have lost three of their last four and don’t have the firepower to go up and down the field throwing haymakers. The only hope New England has is for dismal weather conditions, and even then they should be a bigger dog than this.
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