As we enter the five-week finishing kick to the playoffs, there are a lot of games with huge playoff implications and this week’s picks all have a big taste of season-changing results. We have a game hitting Over, a game going Under, a home team holding serve, an up-and-coming team making a statement, and the team with the best record getting points.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: Take OVER 32 points (+100)
I’m not buying into the hype of Trevor Lawrence playing Sunday, but this point total is incredibly low. The main reason the Over makes sense is what these two defenses have done over the last few weeks. The Jaguars have allowed 55 points over the last two games to the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals, and the Browns have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games. Everyone is talking about backup quarterbacks, but it should be the defensive issues to get over this microscopic number.
4
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: Take UNDER 44 points (-110)
The Broncos have hit under this number in six of their last seven games (and 46 points were scored in the one that went over). What makes this bet even more palatable is that the Chargers have gone under this number in their last three games and five of the last six. In the six games that have hit Under for the Broncos, they have a record of 4-1. In the five games the Chargers have hit Under, they’re 3-2. The best pathway to victory for both teams is staying under this number.
3
Take New Orleans Saints and lay 5.5 points (-105) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Saints have the talent to win a very weak division by stringing together wins, but are on three-game losing streak. Jameis Winston is always a wild card, because he can throw four touchdowns or four picks – or both in the same game. The Panthers are 1-11, because they’re not good on both sides of the ball. In New Orleans and you’re giving up less than two field goals to cover? Who dat!
2
Take Houston Texans and lay 3.5 points (-110) at New York Jets
The Texans are suddenly in the middle of a division title race, and this is the kind of statement win they need to let everyone know they’re legit. This bet is based much more on the Jets’ ineptitude than the strength of the Texans playing in December in New Jersey. The Jets haven’t scored more than 13 points in their last six games (58 points total). The Texans don’t need to be perfect to cover this number. The Jets will do their part … as they have for the last month and a half.
1
Take Philadelphia Eagles plus 3.5 points (+100) at Dallas Cowboys
This bet is based on two things – getting 3-and-a-hook on the team with the league’s best record and the Cowboys’ resume for getting to 9-3. Their nine wins have been impressive, especially at home, but they’ve come against the New York Giants (twice), New York Jets, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks. Among their three losses are to the Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. Dallas does what Dallas does – beats the teams it should and lose to the teams it should, much less giving away more than a field goal.
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