This week we focus on the point spread favorites. Of the five best bets for this week, four are taking favorites – three home and one road – including the biggest point spread of the week as well as one Over/Under that could be the shootout 2022 is sorely lacking in.
There’s revenge. There’s being in a bad neighborhood on a Monday night where the locals are looking to beat somebody down. There’s a knockout punch for teams transitioning division title dreams into wild-card hopes. It has it all.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins: Take the Over at 49.5 points (-108)
The Dolphins have a big-play passing offense and a very shaky run defense that allows far too many yards to shorten fields. In the last two games against teams that prefer to run – the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions – the point totals were 58 and 67. The Browns are a vastly better offense than either of those teams and are coming off their bye week rested and ready. This has the smell of a 31-27 back-and-forth type game where the offenses dominate.
4
Take Tennessee Titans and lay 3 points (-104) vs. Denver Broncos
This spread went from 2.5 points to 3, making the buy-in for the Titans much more affordable. That half-point is overrated. The Titans are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), and those two losses came in the first two games (6-0 since). The Titans take care of business when they’re supposed to win, especially at home in an early window game against a West Coast team that last played in London. Ryan Tannehill’s return is critical, and the Titans have every opportunity to control this game.
3
Take Philadelphia Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-112) vs. Washington Commanders
Of their eight wins this season, the Eagles have won four of them by totals of 12, 16, 17 and 22 – and that 16-point win came at Washington in Week 2 when the Commanders weren’t playing their backup quarterback. The Commanders are notoriously slow starters – scoring just 13 points in the first quarter all season. A Monday night national stage is where Super Bowl teams make statements. This one could end up twice this big.
2
Take Dallas Cowboys and lay 4.5 points (-107) at Green Bay Packers
In January, I make money betting against the Cowboys. In November? I pick my spots. The Packers are like a drunk stumbling through a marathon. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and the single win is because Buffalo beat them by only 10. Dallas is 6-2 ATS and is coming off its bye week with a rested defense that has only allowed two teams to score 20 points – a loss to the 8-0 Eagles and a 20-point win over the Bears. Green Bay has lost too much talent and has too many injuries. Even the mystique Lambeau can’t help them.
1
Take Buffalo Bills and lay 3.5 points (-108) vs. the Minnesota Vikings
In the early line nine days ago, the Bills were 9.5-point favorites. I would have laid that bet. Josh Allen is likely out and proving why he is an MVP frontrunner – one guy effectively moving the line six points. The Minneapolis Miracle play involved Stefon Diggs and Case Keenum when both were Vikings. If Allen goes, this point slides up quick. I’m convinced he won’t play. Keenum comes in for a week and slings it. Diggs getting his first chance to play the Vikings is worth three points. Keenum gets the rest.
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