A lot of people have lost money betting against the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a bet fraught with peril, because he wins at an 80 percent clip – better than Brady. But, he’s an underdog in the Super Bowl against a Philadelphia Eagles team that could deny him (for now) his rightful place in history as a players with chips – not chip – by no fault of his own.
You have two of the league’s top three offenses going against each other, but the Eagles were one 20-yard reception during the regular season from being the NFL’s top-ranked defense. In this game, the key is going to be Philly’s offensive line and its defensive line rotation – where vets like Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph are situational backups in it for a ring. The Eagles can hurt you in a lot of ways, and the Chiefs have too many rookies on defense being asked to make big plays against a largely veteran Eagles offense. This war will be won in the trenches.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
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Moneyline: Take the Eagles (-124)
There’s no tying in football (at least in the postseason), so this bet is essentially a $9 hedge per hundred bet in the event of a 28-27-style Eagles win that would result in a loss against the spread (1.5 points in favor of Philly).
As someone who always has his money on his mind, I won’t be personally taking this bet because I don’t see the value in banking on a single point when ties are off the table. I take this bet on the 12th of Never, not the 12th of February. It can’t go to overtime – the spread could be 2.5 in that case. But I understand the rationale of two teams capable of lighting things up or draining the clock in the fourth quarter that gives this bet some credence if you think the Eagles are going to win.
Nobody taking the Chiefs straight up at +108 will drop $17 on a $100 bet to get that same one point at -109.
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Point spread: Take the Eagles and lay 1.5 points (-111)
Often times, the point spread can fluctuate daily and even hourly on big games. The Eagles were established as a 1.5-point favorite early, and the line hasn’t moved. They found the “God spot” for a spread that gets equal action on both sides.
What has me locked in on this bet is that it is conceivable that the Chiefs can be limited offensively by a pressure defense that will force Mahomes to get rid of the ball quickly. The Chiefs will need to blitz Jalen Hurts to accomplish the same with any regularity. With the two No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences meeting, a blowout final score is unlikely. There are simply more scenarios that can play out in favor of the Eagles – who have a better defense and an offense that can beat you if on that day you can’t consistently stop the run or consistently stop the pass.
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Over/Under: Take the Over of 50.5 points (-114)
That’s a big number. But these are the No. 1 offense in the NFL (Kansas City) and the No. 3 (Philadelphia). It’s a number that requires significantly more touchdowns than field goals. That can’t be overstated.
That being said, if one team gets behind by double digits early, one of these offenses will become pass-heavy. That leads to points. It may take until the final couple of minutes in the event the losing team is up against a prevent defense that allows them to put up “garbage time” points. While 51 points in 60 minutes (or more) is a big ask, it’s why the Under requires a lesser investment (-106).
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