Over the past four seasons, one NASCAR Cup Series driver has stood tall above the rest in the win category. That driver is Kyle Larson, wheelman of the No. 5 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports.
So, while a Team Penske driver has claimed the champion’s mantle in each of the three previous Cup Series seasons, Larson is the odds-on championship favorite for 2025.
Let’s take a closer look at why this is the case, and finish up with the bottom line on Kyle Larson and his title chances.
Larson’s Win Total Since 2021 Puts His NASCAR Cup Series Competitors To Shame
Beginning in 2021, the year that Larson joined the powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports organization, the Elk Grove, California native has been hands-down the NASCAR Cup Series’ most dominant driver.
You’re looking at the NEW CLOSEST FINISH IN NASCAR CUP SERIES HISTORY.
Kyle Larson beats Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds.
🎥 : NASCAR pic.twitter.com/nIDGbMqgur
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) May 6, 2024
Oh sure, Larson only has one championship — which he earned in 2021 — over that four-year stretch, but were it not for some rotten luck, he could have easily finished P1 in the standings all four years.
Consider that Larson led the NASCAR Cup Series in wins in both 2021 and 2024, earning 10 and six victories, respectively. Over the other two seasons — 2022 and 2023 — Larson went to Victory Lane a combined total of seven times.
Taken altogether, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has earned 23 of his 29 career Cup Series victories since taking over NASCAR Hall of Fame team owner Rick Hendrick’s No. 5 car in 2021.
The driver with the next highest win total over the last four seasons? Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron, who’s triumphed a dozen times. Next is Team Penske’s Joey Logano (10 wins) and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (10), followed by Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (9) and JGR’s Christopher Bell (9), and Hendrick’s Chase Elliott (8) and 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (8).
Even Logano’s Overall Stats Don’t Measure Up To Larson’s Over The Last 4 Years
While Logano has two championships (2022 and 2024) to Larson’s one in the last four years, Larson has more than twice as many wins as Logano over the same stretch. And unlike Logano, who finished eighth in 2021 and 12th in the 2023 standings, Larson has ranked no worse than seventh since 2021.
In 2023, one of the years that Larson came up short, it was by but a whisker. How close was Larson to becoming a two-time champ that year? He reached the Championship 4 and finished third — one position behind champion Blaney — in the final race.
Even though Larson missed the Championship 4 in 2024, ultimately finishing sixth in the standings, he ended the season tied with Bell for most top-fives (15) and led a whopping 1,700 laps. The only other driver to spend more than a thousand laps out front was Bell, who paced the field for 1,145 circuits. Larson also led all drivers in stage victories, with 12.
Had Larson not had an uncharacteristically mediocre stretch of races in the Round of 8 — where he finished 11th, 13th and third — he would have glided right into the Championship 4. And had he reached the Championship 4 at Phoenix, he likely would have been a handful, since he finished fourth in the season finale despite not being among the title contenders.
Kyle Larson has six wins this year while no other driver has more than three. But Larson isn't racing for a championship today. His thoughts: pic.twitter.com/diQJTvEvx9
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) November 10, 2024
Larson Is Well-Positioned To Become A Two-Time NASCAR Cup Series Champ In 2025
The bottom line on Kyle Larson? Well, it’s pretty simple.
Despite being outpaced by Logano in championships since 2021, he has been the NASCAR Cup Series’ top performer by a country mile over the last quartet of seasons.
And given how unlikely it is from a historical, law-of-averages perspective for the same organization — in this case, Team Penske — to capture four consecutive championships, Larson is highly likely to be the guy sipping the champion’s champagne when all the dust has settled on the 2025 Cup Series campaign.
