There are towns called Paradise and Hell in Michigan that are less than 300 miles apart.
A relatively short journey, then. Wales know all about it.
In two years they have travelled from fifth in the Six Nations to first and back to fifth again. For sure, no-one can complain of a lack of variety for the national team under Wayne Pivac.
After the relative calm of the Warren Gatland years, boom and bust are in season again. With bells on.
Saturday’s 22-21 defeat by Italy was desperate by any standard, Wales crashing to a team that had previously lost 36 games in a row in the championship.
But how have Pivac’s team fallen so far so quickly?
MARK ORDERS runs through the reasons.
Pivac's non-stop tinkering with selection
We are now up to 27 different teams Pivac has selected, with at least one change every time Wales have taken the field during his reign.
It’s hard to generate cohesion and continuity when there is so much inconsistency in selection.
Moreover, it suggests the coach doesn’t know his best starting XV. This is exactly the point Graham Price made in his pre-Italy column when he warned Pivac was going about the game in the wrong way. Read about that here
Of course Wales should have beaten Italy at home given the Azzurri’s appalling record over this season and several other seasons, but Price is among those who felt making so many changes was asking for trouble.
There were seven in total with each area of the side bar the back row affected. Were Wales, despite winning just one previous game in the competition, over-confident?
People will have their own views. But it’s overdue for Pivac to throttle back on his relentless chopping and changing.
This one is 100 per cent at the coach's door.
Other coaches need to up their game
“Pivac’s Wales have been as dull as the Gatland version but not as effective. A miserable spring awaits. ” An Irish writer penned those words before the start of the Six Nations.
Award that man a gold star for prescience.
Where is the flowing game Pivac oversaw at the Scarlets? What’s happened to Wales’ attack? "Look at how pedestrian Wales are," lamented Sean Holley when analysing on BBC Wales' Scrum V Six Nations Special. "You are not going to break down Cwmavon Under-13s, let alone Italy, let alone France." He had a point. The footage showed players disengaged and wandering around, not appearing to know what was going on, as attacks unfolded. There were one-up runners who were easy to wrap up. Ball was slow. Options were limited.
Where is the invention and patterns that had been hoped for when Pivac and attack coach Stephen Jones took over?
Is Jones making the best of the resources at his disposal? Do Wales have too many square pegs in round holes, unable to attack the way Jones wants? Or is there a problem with the strategy?
So many questions, not enough answers.
It was never going to be easy to follow in Warren Gatland’s footsteps, and Pivac should have credit in the bank after his title success last year. Sacking him 18 months out from a World Cup would be a big call with no guarantees it would work, but if Wales are going to do anything in France next year it goes without saying that several of their coaches — maybe Gethin Jenkins can be excluded here, with Wales’ defence largely impressive throughout the tournament — need to up their game.
Chaotic Welsh rugby environment
Well, it hasn’t helped, has it? Rare is the week that passes without some setback or other in Welsh rugby.
Maybe turbulence is simply the default setting for the sport here, but it doesn’t aid the national coach. As guardians of the game in Wales, the Welsh Rugby Union have to take some responsibility. They are the ones ultimately charged with ensuring all areas of the sport fire properly this side of the River Severn.
But the regional game lurches from crisis to crisis, with heavy defeats no longer shocking anyone. That makes it difficult for the national coach to prosper when most of his players play their week-to-week rugby under circumstances, although Wales did win the Six Nations in 2019 and again in 2021.
The Welsh Premiership is of variable quality — some would use different words — and one coach in the development chain said recently he had never been so depressed about the lack of quality coming through at age-grade levels in Wales, suggesting there was a major issue with player numbers.
The WRU are at the head of such chaos. One way or the other they need to sort it out.
Wales are not clinical enough
When they do create chances, Wales often struggle to take them, whether by bombing lineouts, throwing out imprecise passes or failing to catch the ball. At least two gilt-edged chances were passed up on Saturday, one when Johnny McNicholl’s pass dropped on Louis Rees-Zammit, another when Dan Biggar threw an imprecise ball to Willis Halaholo.
There was also a botched lineout around the Italian 22, while Wyn Jones will never have a better chance of adding to his try tally than he had when a yard out against the Azzurri. The previous week Jonathan Davies had failed to hold onto an inside pass from Taulupe Faletau with the line beckoning.
Teams with ambitions to compete are not wasteful. Wales haven’t taken their chances this term, and it has cost them.
Tipuric is irreplaceable
It’s hard to overstate the importance of this one, with Justin Tipuric arguably Wales’ best defensive player and a formidable attacking weapon as well. Pivac has used five players at openside since the Ospreys flanker’s shoulder injury last summer, and all have had their moments. But Tipuric is a cut above. Pivac must be counting down the days to his return.
Not learning the lessons
A year ago Wales failed to close out their match with France as they lost composure before coughing up a 79th minute penalty from where Les Bleus were able to venture upfield and score a try that cost a Grand Slam.
Fast-forward to Saturday and Pivac’s team lumped the ball upfield and then saw their usually reliable defence ripped open by Ange Capuozzo.
It was more than a bit shambolic.
The best teams know how to finish matches. Consider that one a work-on for Wales.
The 10-12 dynamic
It’s been a major problem, finding the right man to play outside Dan Biggar.
The Pivac era started with Hadleigh Parkes operating at inside centre. Since he decamped to Japan, Nick Tompkins, Owen Watkin, Johnny Williams, Jonathan Davies and Willis Halaholo have worn the shirt with varying degrees of success.
In a perfect world, the 12 would be creative to complement Biggar. He would have a kicking game, handling skills and vision but he would also be able to defend. Pivac hasn’t been able to unearth such an individual.
Some believe the Scarlets’ Scott Williams could fill the role, but after the injuries he’s had Wales would presumably want assurances that he’d be able to withstand the rigours of international training. Meantime, the musical chairs continues. Anyone who fancies his chances please pick up the phone and ring Pivac or Jones. They'll be waiting for your calls.
And more creativity needed
This one follows on from the previous one. Oh yes.
Wales scored 20 tries in the 2021 Six Nations, the most they have registered in a single championship campaign. There were at least two Welsh touchdowns in every match.
This term, the creativity has seeped out of their game. Possibly, some players might struggle to spell the word ‘creativity’ if you gave them 50 goes.
The most creative 10 in Welsh rugby is Jarrod Evans, but he hasn’t been involved. Might he have added something off the bench late in games? It’s all subjective.
But from somewhere, Wales need to add to their inventiveness.
Injuries to key players
Injuries are part of professional sport and everyone has them, but Wales do seem to have been hammered by major knocks to key players over the past 12 months, from the aforementioned Justin Tipuric through to George North, Ken Owens, Josh Navidi, Taulupe Faletau and Alun Wyn Jones. All of those have been off limits at various points, and any team would miss individuals of that calibre.
injuries shouldn't be seen as an excuse, but when you have as small a playing pool as Wales do losing so many in one go does have an effect.
With extra depth, others are able to manage better. Ireland, for instance, have been without Lions Test man Robbie Henshaw at times this season, but Garry Ringrose and Bundee Aki have covered the midfield superbly. Charles Ollivon has been absent for France, but Anthony Jelonch has stepped in seamlessly.
Pivac's side have struggled to cope.
Gatland's golden generation
Warren Gatland left his fellow Kiwi with a Wales side containing a number of players with many miles on the clock. The call for Pivac was when or if he should start replacing the over-30s brigade. The problem was there was a significant fall-off in quality when some of them were absent.
Rewind to last summer when Wales, minus their Lions, struggled badly against Argentina at home.
Pivac seems to be looking at each case on merit, which many would agree is the way forward. One or two have started to show increased signs of wear and tear over the past 12 months, though.
Can they rediscover themselves and make it through to France 2023? That is the question.
Second-season syndrome for Rees-Zammit
Louis Rees-Zammit was a constant threat in the 2021 Six Nations, scoring four tries and looking dangerous every time he had the ball. But this term has been tougher — much tougher — with creases in his defensive game becoming apparent and tries drying up.
The inability of those inside to put him into space has been part of the problem, and Rees-Zammit has almost been trying too hard when the ball has reached him. Someone should tell him it’s OK to kick for territory now and again and just do the simple things well. He doesn’t have to magic up a score from 80 metres every time he has the ball.
With pace like he has, the tries will come again, but the 21-year-old also needs to make sure the basics of his game are in place. Playing on the wing doesn’t just involve running like the wind.
North's new role
Here’s another huge miss for the Six Nations campaign. George North had been adapting so well to his role at outside centre that he looked a certainty to tour with the Lions. He was playing with confidence again, getting more touches of the ball, showing authority and scoring tries. Wales had their strike-runner at No. 13.
Owen Watkin has had a steady campaign and was one of the few Wales players who emerged from Saturday’s wreckage with his reputation intact. Maybe he could yet emerge as the No. 12 Pivac is looking for.
But any side would miss a player of North's stature. Wales certainly have.
Conveyor belt hits problems
Wales have finished in the bottom half of the U20 Six Nations for the past five years.
The odd good player is still coming through, but there is nothing like the rush of quality that Warren Gatland benefited from ahead of the 2011 World Cup, when the likes of Sam Warburton, Taulupe Faletau, Jonathan Davies, Dan Lydiate, Leigh Halfpenny and Scott Williams came through within a relatively short space of time.
Are Wales always on the edge?
“They always bring their game, no matter what the opposition. If they are a hundred points better, there’s a hundred points on the board.” So said the former Ireland international Phillip Matthews about New Zealand a while back.
Can the same be said about Wales? Well, no.
They had seven Lions in their side on Saturday yet couldn’t beat Italy at home, with the team initially looking flat and distracted. That’s never a basis to win a Test match.
And, finally, maybe last year's success masked problems
It’s just a thought. Three Six Nations teams had players sent off against Wayne Pivac’s side last year.
Discipline is part of the game and it was their fault that they failed to stay within the rules. Wales duly helped themselves to a title some described as startling.
But did the success leave a false impression of Wales’ strength and ability to sustain matters?
We’ll just leave that question out there.
