More from Albert Breer: The Bosa Brothers Invested in Themselves, and the Payoff Has Been Worth It | Takeaways: Mark Your Calendars, Commanders Fans, It’s Time to Celebrate
So Nick Bosa’s about to get really, really rich (see above), and he’s not the only one—which is where we’ll start our list of the dozen things we’ll all be talking about when I get back from my three weeks of summer vacation.
The monster, market-moving money to be committed. It’s fair to say we could see the standards reset for quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert), receivers (Justin Jefferson) and edge rushers (Bosa) before Labor Day. And my guess would be that, should they do extensions, Jets DT Quinnen Williams, Panthers OLB Brian Burns, Bengals WR Tee Higgins, Packers OLB Rashan Gary, Chiefs DT Chris Jones, Commanders DE Montez Sweat, Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor should all be within shouting distance of highest paid at their positions (though Aaron Donald did set the bar high for defensive tackles). How many of these will get done before camp? Will we see hold-ins if some don’t get done? These situations will have teams hard at work when they get back to the office in mid-July.
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A referendum on running backs. The tailback market has, to put it bluntly, sucked this offseason. The high-water market in free agency was around $6 million per year (the range new Panther Miles Sanders and new Lion David Montgomery landed in), and two guys who were pretty recently at the top of the league at the position, Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, were cut. And at the center of all this are three star backs on franchise tags: the Giants’ Saquon Barkley, Raiders’ Josh Jacobs, and Cowboys’ Tony Pollard. Conventional wisdom, and history, says those three should just take every penny they can on new contracts, with time as a stud at that position always fleeting, and call it a day. Will any of them take a stand? And given what’s happened to backs who have in the past (Le’Veon Bell), should they?
The Commanders sale. We have more on this in the takeaways, but the league told owners to set aside July 20 as the travel date for a vote (it’ll be in Minneapolis), meaning Josh Harris and his group will be welcomed in just as preseason games get going. That’s great news for a fan base that’s dealt with a quarter century of chaos under Dan Snyder. It’s not as great for the football folks Harris will inherit, all of whom will be under pressure to perform, with the knowledge that most new owners come in with instincts to clear the decks and start anew.
DeAndre Hopkins’s and Dalvin Cook’s availability. Neither has been in any rush to sign, and there’s merit, for both, in the idea of waiting. New suitors could emerge for Hopkins in July, as teams get back in the office, review the spring and assess their rosters heading into training camp. And as for Cook, injuries routinely happen, and create opportunities for veteran players, so patience could lead to someone’s loosening the purse strings a little bit. For both Cook and Hopkins, I think how potential buyers see their rookies heading into camp (for example, Kansas City with Rashee Rice at receiver and Miami with Devon Achane at running back) could affect how the market develops.
Tank you very much. In case you hadn’t heard, USC’s Caleb Williams will likely be in the 2024 NFL draft. North Carolina’s Drake Maye, too. So I’d expect the idea of teams positioning themselves to land Williams (with Maye standing as a really nice consolation prize) to be a season-long topic as the race to the bottom of the standings gets clarified, around when the leaves turn and the trade deadline approaches. And in some cases (Arizona?), we won’t have to wait until then to talk about it.
Tua Tagovailoa and concussions. The Dolphins have, again, stood behind their quarterback and created every impression that he’s their guy; there’s no doubt that picking up Tagovailoa’s fully guaranteed, $23.2 million option for 2024 was a hell of a vote of confidence. Still, the quarterback did have two head injuries in a five-day period, culminating with the scary fencing occurrence on Thursday Night Football, and was concussed again on Christmas against the Packers, then shut down for the year. Meanwhile, Miami has loaded up around him after making the playoffs in Mike McDaniel’s first year as a head coach. So how Tagovailoa, tagged as injury-prone before all this, holds up will be a very big story this summer, and one that, as it did last year, crosses over outside the traditional sports media.
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How’s Brock Purdy’s elbow? The 49ers might have the most talented roster in the NFL. There is, though, one, rather significant caveat: We’re not totally sure who the quarterback will be. Everything has checked out to this point, and Purdy made it to the June crossroads where his timeline would be better defined, being put on a throwing program that puts him on track to be ready for Week 1. Which is great news. But how he throws it this year, and how losing the offseason between Year 1 and Year 2 affects him, remains to be seen, and making this situation all the more intriguing is that Purdy has a couple of pretty interesting backups, in Sam Darnold and Trey Lance. Stay tuned on this one.
Are the Jaguars primed to make the leap? The last we saw of Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson, the Jacksonville QB and coach were leading a historic comeback in the wild-card round, and hanging in there at Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional playoffs. And the arrow is definitely pointing up here. Which means a promising young team is facing a different challenge, in big expectations, than it was during last year’s rehab effort. The Jaguars will be the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC South with a team full of ascending young players, and the lack of depth in their division (relative to the rest of the conference) should have them positioned well seeding-wise.
The relative strength of the AFC is bananas. Here’s a list of quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson. At least two of those guys won’t make the playoffs, and we didn’t even get into guys such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett. The collection of quarterbacks (most of them 27 and under) and teams in the AFC is just ridiculous. And as a result, whoever emerges from the conference, and gets to Las Vegas in February, figures to have taken some punches.
Deshaun Watson’s first full season since 2020. Presuming he stays healthy, we’re getting that this fall, and it’ll be interesting to see where it goes. If you’re keeping score, in ’20, with the Texans a five-alarm fire around him, Watson completed 70.2% of his passes for 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, seven picks and a 112.4 passer rating. The year before, he had Houston up 24–0 at Arrowhead in the divisional round. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs came storming back, and the rest is history, but the point here is that it’s really easy to forget the player Watson once was. And maybe, with Cleveland having a full offseason to build an offense for him as its starter, Watson will be good on the field again.
The redemption of Russell Wilson … maybe. It’s hard to imagine public perception shifting more on a player than it has on Wilson over the past 12 months. In Year 2 as a Bronco, to try to fix all that, the quarterback got the NFL’s newest and wealthiest ownership family, plus a Super Bowl–winning coach who made his bones coaching the quarterback position. It’s not Wilson’s show anymore. It’s Sean Payton’s. So buckle up for this one. Could be, to borrow a phrase, a wild ride.
Are the Bills on the same page? I believe the answer is yes, after all the Stefon Diggs drama of minicamp week. But talking things out in June and handling the real bumps of the season in the fall are two different things, so how the team and its stars handle the pressure coming to them this summer will be fascinating. I think Buffalo’s still one of the NFL’s best teams, and surely one of its best operations, and if I had to bet, that will shine through after a tumultuous year or so for Western New York’s team.
