NEWCASTLE'S slim hopes of reaching the NRL finals hinge on breaking a 10-year drought when they take on fellow strugglers Canterbury at Accord Stadium on Sunday.
With nine games to play, the 14th-placed Knights will probably need seven wins to qualify for the play-offs, starting with the Bulldogs, who sit one point and one position below them on the ladder.
Canterbury have been a bogey side for Newcastle in recent seasons, especially on their home turf.
The Knights' most recent victory against the Bulldogs in Sydney was in 2013, when they produced a 22-6 boilover in an elimination semi-final at the former Olympic stadium.
Since then Canterbury have won nine of the past 13 clashes between the two sides. Two of Newcastle's wins in that time were at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium during Magic Round, one was on the Gold Coast during the COVID-interrupted 2021 season and the other was on home turf.
The Knights shouldn't need to cast their minds back too far to remember Canterbury's capabilities, after a 24-10 upset at McDonald Jones Stadium last season, in which Newcastle discard Jacob Kiraz scored a hat-trick.
While the Knights will need to emulate Parramatta's miraculous run in 2009 if they hope to make the finals, coach Adam O'Brien has not given up hope.
But he realises Sunday's showdown - to be followed by a bye and then Wests Tigers at home - will be critical if his team are to produce a late charge.
"Ladder position is irrelevant," O'Brien said of the Bulldogs, who like Newcastle have lost their past three games.
"I think anyone can get knocked off. You've seen that across the competition.
"Some of the top sides have been flogged this season by teams, so we're not in a position to underestimate anyone at the moment."
The Knights lost 20-12 last week against a Penrith side labelled "relentless" by Newcastle skipper Kalyn Ponga, and O'Brien admitted his team would need to show more resilience and patience on Sunday.
"We made a lot of errors and didn't want to stay in the grind," O'Brien said.
"That's an area that we need to be prepared to do this week ... narrow the focus this week.
"Perhaps I've given them a little bit too much to think about in the past."
O'Brien said he had held "honest conversations" with his troops in reviewing the loss to Penrith, but there were positives to take out of that performance.
"When we watch the vision and identify the areas where we fell short, I think that can be confidence-building as well," O'Brien said.
"It's not like we're searching for the answers. We can see and know that they're there, and it's just about rectifying them in your preparation and making sure that we execute that part in the game."
O'Brien remains confident that a breakthrough win is on the horizon.
"There are five or six games there where we've been in with a fighting chance, we just haven't been icing it," O'Brien said. "It hasn't been through lack of effort or commitment, it's just been through lack of polish. That's just where we're at.
"We need to focus on improving in that area, and then you're winning more than you're losing."
Newcastle will no doubt be intent on directing plenty of traffic at rookie five-eighth Khaled Rajab, who has been promoted to the starting line-up after playing three NRL games off the bench.
"We're constantly trying to get better as a team," the Lebanon international said.
"Regardless of who we go up against and where we are [on the points table], we always want to win and try to get the best out of ourselves."
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