The NFL schedule may have been released merely minutes ago, but did you know we’ve been aware of its contents since the end of the 2022 season? The NFL schedule release merely places all the games in order. In essence, if you’re a fan of The Great British Baking Show, we’re talking about the difference between the technical challenge, where ingredients are given sans concrete instructions, and the showstopper challenge, in which contestants know the exact time and measurement that every ingredient must be added. And they’re both great, right?
So, I didn’t even need to wait for the schedule to come out to tell me what the greatest games are going to be. If you are reading this within 15 minutes of the schedule being released and wondering how I wrote 2,000 words and then got them through Sports Illustrated’s editors so quickly, consider this your peek behind the curtain. For the most part, timing on the calendar is superfluous to what ends up making a game good (though there is one game on this list that made the cut thanks to its placement on a holiday). This will obviously be different for everyone. I could imagine a Raiders fan, for example, having nine of their 10 best games involving their team. But some of us don’t like being bored to death. These are the ones I have circled.
1. Jets vs. Patriots: Week 3, Sept. 24
I think that, internally, the Jets view Patriots games as a bit of a litmus test for the legitimacy of a given campaign. Never mind Bill Belichick’s personal animus toward the franchise; he is always well prepared and knows his opponents intimately. The Jets have not defeated the Patriots since 2015, a stunning seven-year losing streak that currently stands as the longest active losing streak by one team to a single opponent. Within those losses are some emotional haymakers, such as the Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” game and the punchless affair in Foxborough last year that resulted in Zach Wilson’s seemingly eschewing responsibility for the offense’s performance (in reality, the situation was far more complicated and nuanced than that, and I think Wilson deserves some sympathy). The Darnold ghosts game was a 33–0 loss, and there are three others with greater margins of victory in that span. So, the Jets would like nothing more than to heave that log off their chests and notch a victory against an opponent that has psychologically resided without rent in their collective headspace. Aaron Rodgers has faced the Patriots four times in his career, but only three while starting. In those three starts, his teams were 2–1, including a 27–24 win last October, with Rodgers throwing six touchdowns against one interception in those games.
2. Falcons vs. Panthers: Week 1, Sept. 10
Perhaps you will disagree with my excitement for this game, but allow me the chance to talk you into it. I think this is a good example of the dichotomy in team building. The Falcons decided against trading up for an obvious franchise quarterback and opted to construct their team with a leading emphasis on other positions. Here’s our Albert Breer explaining that, from Arthur Smith’s perspective, in great detail. The Panthers went the traditional route, knowing that they were bad enough to be in striking distance of a possible face-of-the-franchise-type player. Both teams will inevitably experience their growing pains. However, I would like to see what that individual attrition looks like. For example, is Bijan Robinson good enough to put Desmond Ridder in situations where he can more easily respond to difficulties? Or is Bryce Young so good that he can pull the Panthers out of a less-than-desirable situation? Adding to the intrigue in this matchup is a chance to see what Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero decides to do with the Falcons’ suite of playmakers. He has proved, again and again, to be among the league’s most fearless and creative defensive minds.
3. Jaguars vs. Chiefs: Week 2, Sept. 17
I am highlighting some of the matchups I think will define the AFC playoff race and preview critical playoff games. At the moment, I feel like the Jaguars are more legitimate threats to the Chiefs than the Bills, though probably slightly below the Bengals. Time will obviously bear that out, but I view this game as a sort of measuring stick for how far the Jaguars have come from a year ago, when in the divisional round they could not defeat a seriously hobbled Mahomes (to be clear, I’m not criticizing them, as no one could defeat a seriously hobbled Mahomes, it turned out). I like these games even though the tired media machine behind the matchup often makes it about a quarterback versus a quarterback. The benefit is that we get to see regular-season football take on a heightened significance, and, thus, we get to see quarterbacks perform under those circumstances. Should Jacksonville’s defense materialize into the vision Trent Baalke seems to have for it, we could be looking at the sort of amoebic, shape-shifting front with speed elements that can give Mahomes trouble. Obviously, we are putting a great deal on the future plate of Trevor Lawrence, but if he can handle the moment, how nice would it be to have another consistent, super-talented potential Mahomes foil in the conference?
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4. Eagles vs. 49ers: Week 13, Dec. 3
Deebo Samuel said (correctly, by the way) that the 49ers would have defeated the Eagles if Brock Purdy had played the entire NFC championship game. While I can’t say for certain who will be playing quarterback for the 49ers in Week 13, given Kyle Shanahan’s hoarding at the position, I think San Francisco should have a living, breathing human capable of delivering the football. If Sam Darnold is your third-string quarterback, it feels like you understand the cosmic weight of bad luck and the value of being overprepared. For the record, yes, I am saying that the 49ers could have defeated the Eagles with Darnold in that January game. I never really consider these kinds of games rematches, because last year the Eagles didn’t have Jalen Carter and the 49ers didn’t have what seemed like a baker’s dozen mid-round draft choices that could directly feed their personnel machine. The Eagles did have Javon Hargrave, who has since flipped sides in this rivalry, adding even more juice to it as he goes up against his former team’s star-studded offensive line. Both of these teams are going to be different and better. Both of these teams are among the most well-run organizations in the sport. The result will be a glimpse at where the standard for NFL success is right now and perhaps a look at where the game is going in years to come.
5. Bengals vs. Bills: Week 9, Nov. 5 (SNF)
Here’s another easy one to include. Of course we’re going to be looking forward to Bills-Bengals. I’ll leave Damar Hamlin out of this entirely, because I don’t think it’s any of my business or our business as to whether he’s going to play again. I don’t think the events of his on-field collapse are something any of us want to remember, and they have nothing to do with why we’re excited to watch this game. The fact that his collapse happened to occur against the Bengals will interest only the networks prying for some kind of intrusive interview asking people to needlessly relive a jarring memory. Let’s remember their Week 17 MNF game was already plenty deserving of hype when they kicked off last year. Obviously, Buffalo and Cincinnati are the perpetual contenders behind Kansas City and represent the AFC’s best chances of sending someone other than Patrick Mahomes to the Super Bowl. I’ll be watching because I want to see whether my suspicions about the direction of these two franchises are true. I view Cincinnati as a true 1A to Kansas City, while I fear that Buffalo is dropping into more of a solid No. 3 or No. 4 in the conference. While the Bengals will ultimately have a difficult time keeping this roster together under the weight of a few massive receiver contracts and the eventual Joe Burrow extension, I feel like they will be dominant for large swaths of the season. This is as good a forum as any to put on the kind of decided whipping that confirms Burrow as the cemented No. 2 best quarterback in the NFL. And as an added bonus, don’t forget how angry the Bengals were about how the NFL treated them, relative to the Bills, after the Hamlin game was suspended. Remember Joe Mixon’s coin toss touchdown celebration? Expect a week of digging up old grudges leading up to this one.
6. Ravens vs. Texans: Week 1, Sept. 10
Strange choice? Maybe. While I would have liked to have seen the Ravens and former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale take on C.J. Stroud, I will settle for the current Ravens, who play a vastly different scheme that is less dependent on generating free rushers at the quarterback. Here’s why I’m interested in this game, in particular: Baltimore is very athletic up front on defense and presents a lot of challenges to young quarterbacks. John Harbaugh’s record against rookie quarterbacks is excellent and, like Bill Belichick to the Jets, can represent a bit of a benchmark as to how prepared the young passer can get in a short period of time. There are some ancillary benefits to this game. We’ll get to see Derek Stingley Jr. against either Odell Beckham Jr. or Zay Flowers. We’ll get to see Will Anderson against a very good offensive line. And we’ll get to see how Stroud can maximize possessions against a team and a coach that still value milking the clock, all in the first game of the year.
7. Commanders vs. Cardinals: Week 1, Sept. 10
While there are a number of different matchups that could fill this role on my list, let’s focus on the point here: Two very bad teams are going to play against each other this season and, as a result, potentially decide who gets the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are on the line, and if you thought that this year’s class presented an attractive buffet of quarterbacks, wait until you hear the clamoring for Williams and Maye, which has already started. Quarterbacks like them are the kinds of players you nosedive your franchise into the ground for. The Commanders will have a new owner. The Cardinals will be seeing what life is like under a new coach and Kyler Murray (if he gets himself healthy enough to play this season). I’m not sure they won’t be on the market. So yes, maybe a game this early will decide a key part of the draft order. Or maybe it’ll be a game between two other teams, in a different time or place, when the stakes are already known—like the Texans’ Week 18 win over the Colts last year. But at some point, a game will decide which team is going to get a franchise-altering passer.
8. Patriots vs. Colts: Week 10, Nov. 12 (9:30 a.m. ET)
Here’s another weird one that is going to have everyone upset with me. But there are two reasons I have this game circled. The first is that we need an Anthony Richardson game on this list. We just do. The guy is going to be appointment viewing for the majority of the season. The second is that I want to see Richardson against Belichick. I know people are tired of how hyped Belichick gets when he is not regularly winning Super Bowls, but I promise you, the man is still a defensive genius. I think this game will end up being one of the great offensive mind (new Colts coach Shane Steichen) versus defensive mind coaching matchups of the season, in addition to being a showcase for a young rookie quarterback facing one of his toughest challenges of the year. Belichick is 22–6 all time against rookie quarterbacks. Could Richardson be the guy to reverse that trend? And it’ll take place in front of plenty of eyeballs, in a stand-alone, early-morning TV window from Germany. Also, Germany rules.
9. Broncos vs. Raiders: Week 1, Sept. 10
I think last year’s Broncos opener, in which we saw Russell Wilson yanked off the field in a critical end-of-game situation in favor of a very long field goal on SNF, was evidence of the beginning of his decline. Some people out there saw it as evidence that Nathaniel Hackett was unfit to coach a superstar quarterback. Now we’re going to get a definitive answer. I wonder whether Wilson is privately dreading this season with Sean Payton. After (somewhat) successfully deflecting blame a year ago by virtue of a monster contract, he is now under the tutelage of one of the league’s great unquestioned offensive masters. Payton can make chicken salad out of almost any quarterback situation in the league, and, if Wilson struggles in the opener, it will be not only a referendum on the 2022 season, but also a sign of cloudy skies ahead. The Broncos traded valuable draft capital for this coach and QB combination. The coach is not going anywhere, but this game will go a long way toward deciding whether the quarterback is long for Denver.
10. Packers vs. Saints: Week 3, Sept. 24
I don’t imagine the Packers’ fan base will have a hard time supporting Jordan Love, just like I don’t imagine Love struggling mightily in his home debut. To say that it will be insignificant is ignoring the recent past. Green Bay has had one of the greatest successions of quarterback play in NFL history and, organizationally, has prided itself on being the kind of place that doesn’t have significant lulls between stalwarts. The Packers decided to move on from Rodgers, and, regardless of whether Rodgers’s aloofness had anything to do with that decision, it was a calculated maneuver that distanced the franchise from the most valuable commodity in the sport. Imagine a world where Love throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, while the Jets get cold-cocked in their prime-time opener. Imagine, too, the opposite of that universe. Either way, with this one coming after two road games, we’ll start to formulate some very hefty opinions.
