The party associated with Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has struck a deal with its former military rivals, a move that could coincide with his return after more than 15 years in exile.
The deal announced on Monday has angered many Pheu Thai supporters, as well as those of the reformist Move Forward party that won the most votes and seats in the May general election but whose leader was blocked from taking office.
After weeks of speculation, Pheu Thai – which came second in the vote – said it had joined in a coalition with its former enemies, including the Palang Pracharath party, which was created as a vehicle for the military junta that took power in a 2014 coup, and United Thai Nation, a new party linked to the coup leader and outgoing prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Parties linked to Thaksin, 74, had been locked in a bitter power struggle with military royalists for more than two decades, during which there were long-running protests, as well as a deadly military crackdown in 2010.
At a press conference on Monday, the Pheu Thai leader, Cholnan Srikaew, said the coalition would not include Move Forward, which has promised bold reforms to push army generals out of politics, and would not seek any changes to Thailand’s strict lese majesty law that prohibits criticism of the powerful monarchy.
The arrangement makes it more probable that Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin could become prime minister, ending months of political stalemate, although this is not guaranteed. In July the Move Forward leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from taking office by the senate, which is stacked with military appointees.
Cholnan said: “We are confident that Srettha will pass the vote [to become prime minister]. We must quickly work to restore the economy and come up with policies that will develop mechanisms for the stability of politics, the economy and society.”
The political chaos has been compounded by a recent announcement by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra that he will return to Thailand on Tuesday, the same day as the vote to decide whether Srettha can take office.
There is some scepticism over whether Thaksin will actually travel to Bangkok. The exiled former prime minister previously announced he would return before his birthday in July and later set a date to return on 10 August, but postponed on both occasions.
On Monday afternoon, Thaksin tweeted he would “like to request permission to return to live on the land of Thailand and share the air with the Thai brothers and sisters too”.
Thaksin was ousted by a military coup in 2006 and has lived in exile to avoid legal charges, which he says are politically motivated, including a conviction in absentia for corruption. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted as prime minister in 2014, is also in exile.
According to Thai media, if Thaksin returns on Tuesday he will be taken to court, and detained at Bangkok remand prison.
Paetongtarn has said her father’s scheduled return has no connection to Pheu Thai. Some have accused the party of disregarding the will of the people, who voted resoundingly against military parties in the election, in order to form a deal that would facilitate Thaksin’s return.
An opinion poll released by the National Institute of Development Administration over the weekend found that most Thais disagreed with the idea of a coalition government that included military-backed groups.
On social media, former Pheu Thai supporters have protested and mocked the party for joining with the military, creating TikTok videos satirising the speeches of its leaders in which they promise not to make deals with the generals. Some even burned their red shirts, once worn to show loyalty to the party.
In 2010, more than 90 red shirts, who protested in support of Thaksin, were killed during an army crackdown.
On Monday, Cholnan sought to justify the political deal by saying the coalition parties did not want the political instability to last any longer, with “the country and the public losing opportunities at every moment”.
Under Thailand’s constitution, which was rewritten after the last coup, prime ministerial candidates must have majority backing from both the lower house of 500 elected MPs andthe senate of 250 unelected members, who were appointed by the military.
The alliance announced by Pheu Thai comprises 314 lawmakers, which means they will need to secure the backing of senators if Srettha is to become prime minister.
