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Turnout among Texas voters is slightly down this fall compared to the record-setting 2020 presidential election, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of state data.
More than 2.8 million Texans this year have either voted in person during the first three days of early voting or have returned their ballot by mail. That’s 15.1% of all registered voters. In 2020, 15.7% of registered voters went to the polls or turned in their ballot during the same period in 2020.
Texas has more registered voters than ever: 18.6 million, an increase of about 1.7 million since 2020. Voter turnout during that election ended at about 67% — a modern-day record for the Lone Star State, known for low voter participation.
Early voting began Monday. The last day to vote early is Nov. 1. Texans must return their absentee ballot to their county in person or have their ballot postmarked by Nov. 5, Election Day.
There are caveats to early vote data. It can be incomplete — each county self-reports to the state. And Texas is offering two weeks of early voting in 2024 compared to an extended three weeks in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There was also a greater emphasis on mail-in ballots four years ago.
Just two of the state’s most populous counties — Denton and Fort Bend — have broken their turnout records during the first three days of early voting, the Tribune found. Meanwhile, Dallas, El Paso and Harris counties have seen a drop.
That should be a warning sign for the Texas Democrats, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
“If I were a Democratic adviser, that would give me some concern,” Wilson said.
Another warning sign for Democrats, who have long hoped to gain a foothold in a state dominated by Republicans, is the voting history of early voters.
More Republicans than Democrats appear to be voting early based on their voting history, said Derek Ryan, a veteran consultant and adviser to GOP campaigns. According to his tracking, 1.1 million voters who cast their ballot during the first three days of early voting have previously voted in a Republican primary. That compared to 715,180 voters who participated in a Democratic primary.
At this point in 2020, Republicans and Democrats made up about the same percentage of early vote, according to Ryan's analysis. Meanwhile, in both 2020 and 2024, about a quarter of the early vote was cast by people with no history of voting in a partisan primary election in Texas.
Other states are seeing an increase in Republicans voting early, a reversal of 2020 when former President Donald Trump cast doubt on the process and encouraged his voters to only go to the polls on Election Day.
Texas does not track voter registration by party. Using voting history in political party primaries offers a proxy during a general election.
“The signs here in Texas seem to be pointing that things are going well for Republicans,” Ryan said.
Ryan said he expected the final turnout of this election to be between 2016 and 2020.
“Both parties have a lot of work left over the early voting period and on Election Day to get some of the people who are probably solidly party voters but just may not be as likely to turn out,” Ryan said.
Disclosure: Southern Methodist University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
