A day after a USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV survey revealed Kamala Harris is now only 5 percentage points behind Donald Trump in his home state of Florida, a new poll shows that the vice president has also narrowed the gap with the former president in Texas, a state that has historically voted Republican.
The poll, conducted by ActiVote between July 31 and August 13 among 400 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by 6.6 percentage points, with 53.3% support for Trump compared to 46.6% for Harris. This represents a considerable contrast from the pollster's previous survey. Conducted in July once President Biden ended his re-election bid, it showed Trump with an 8.8 point lead over Harris.
The poll results have fueled speculation among some Democrats that Texas could be more competitive in the upcoming election with Harris on the ticket. Former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke, who narrowly lost the 2018 Texas Senate election to Ted Cruz, recently expressed his optimism in a post on X, claiming that "we (Democrats) will win Texas before long. Much sooner thanks to them."
Harris/Walz are not only winning the race for the White House. They're putting states in play that were once written off.
— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) August 9, 2024
2012 - Obama loses Texas by 16%
2016 - Clinton loses Texas by 9%
2020 - Biden loses Texas by 5.5%
We'll win Texas before long. Much sooner thanks to them. https://t.co/K9xYWIVFiR
However, some experts remain skeptical about Harris' chances in the lone star state. Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University, told Newsweek that while Harris might make the race more competitive, he believes Trump's victory is in the bag:
"At the present time, while Harris is likely to make the race more competitive than it would have been had Biden been the Democratic nominee, I don't see Harris doing much better than Biden did in 2020, and thus a Trump victory in the mid-to-high single digits is the most likely scenario today."
On Wednesday, another poll from Monmouth University revealed that Democrats currently hold an advantage among people who previously disliked the candidates of the two main parties. Concretely, close to 20% of respondents held this view when Biden was running, but the figure dropped to 8% after Harris rose to the top of the ticket.
As Patrick Murray, director of the university's polling institute puts it:
"Taking Biden out of the mix and replacing him with Harris has significantly altered a key metric in this race. As we reported last month, Trump-Biden double haters want to shake things up, but they are wary of change that is too authoritarian. Harris appears to provide most of this group with the fresh outlook they desire."
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