After coming up empty in a well-funded, highly ambitious, and not-slightly hubristic effort to flip the Texas House in the last presidential election cycle, Democrats set their sights lower this time around: flipping two or three of the swingiest GOP-held districts as a means to disarm Governor Greg Abbott’s pro-school voucher gains in the Republican primaries.
And yet, Texas Dems managed to trip over their own low bar. Ahead of the elections, the head of the state House Democratic caucus, San Antonio Representative Trey Martinez Fischer, told the Texas Observer: “We’re gonna pick up seats regardless”—at least two, maybe up to seven or more.
Instead, Democrats not only whiffed on what they saw as the lowest-hanging fruit—districts in San Antonio, Dallas, and Cameron County—but also lost two open seats held by retiring Dems in Uvalde and Corpus Christi. As ever, the Texas Republican machine—led by Abbott’s war chest—was aggressive on both defense and offense, as candidates and outside groups outraised and outspent Democrats (who lacked much of any national funding this time) across the map.
In the marquee race, Republican incumbent John Lujan held on with a roughly 4-point win over Democrat Kristian Carranza to keep his (once solidly Democratic) south San Antonio seat. On the north side, Laurel Jordan Swift failed to capitalize on the support of ousted anti-voucher Republican incumbent Republican Steve Allison, losing to right-wing GOPer Marc LaHood and thus reviving the Bexar County LaHood dynasty. Down in Cameron County, the Republican operatives who drew the latest redistricting lines showed they knew what they were doing when they concocted a swingy district in the Valley. Republican Janie Lopez, who won the seat in 2022 by just a few points, was reelected Tuesday in a 10-point rout. Up in Dallas County, the two remaining Republican legislators in that county easily prevailed again over their Democratic opponents.
Meanwhile, the GOP picked off the two seats left open by retiring Democrats. In a rural district that runs from Uvalde to Webb County—long held by Tracy King, the last of the Lege’s dying breed of rural Anglo conservative Dems in Texas—was won easily by ex-Uvalde mayor Don McLaughlin against Democrat Cecilia Castellano (whose primary opponent Rosie Cuellar, sister of Laredo notable Henry, threw her support to McLaughlin). And out in Corpus Christi, ex-legislator Solomon Ortiz Jr. (son of the longtime Democratic congressman) made a bid to return to the Texas House by running for the seat left open by departing Democratic incumbent Abel Herrero, who had been reelected by 15 points in 2022.
Republican Denise Villalobos beat Ortiz Jr. by 11 points.
The only two bright spots for House Dems were that Eagle Pass incumbent Eddie Morales Jr. and Mihaela Plesa, the newly minted and lone Collin County Dem, both held onto their seats in heavily contested races.
The latest round of House Dems’ campaign failures not only likely ensures Abbott will have his majority in the lower chamber to back his vouchers plan (and other assorted pet projects); it also means that a growing right-wing faction of Republicans in the Texas House will be further emboldened in their fight to topple House Speaker Dade Phelan, as they claim a mandate to cut Democrats out of lawmaking altogether and pass a litany of GOP activist priorities.
Phelan’s path to retaining power—which necessitates brokering support from the Democrats—was already politically precarious before the minority party’s ranks were further diminished. It will be especially hard now to retain a speakership that depends on a weakened minority that Phelan’s own party just trounced.
