AUSTIN, Texas — Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points in the Texas governor’s race, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Among likely voters, Abbott edges the former El Paso congressman, 49% to 44%, the poll by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston found.
In the last Hobby School poll in January, Abbott led O’Rourke among likely voters, 48%-43%.
In the latest, conducted between June 27 and last Thursday, Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton each holds a 5-point lead in his November matchup with a Democrat.
The online poll surveyed 1,169 YouGov respondents who are registered voters. Of them 46% identify as Republican, 41% as Democrat and 11% are independent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Abbott, Patrick and Paxton all are Republicans. On Nov. 8, all are seeking a third four-year term.
All three are polling below 50% among likely voters — a potential sign of trouble for an incumbent.
In the governor’s race, Libertarian Mark Tippetts is drawing 2% of likely voters. The Green Party’s Delilah Barrios has just 0.2%, while 5% are undecided.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Patrick leads Democrat Mike Collier among likely voters, 48%-43%, with 9% undecided.
In the election for attorney general, Paxton leads Democrat Michelle Garza among likely voters, 46%-41%. Libertarian Mark Ash has 4% and 9% are undecided.
Anticipating criticism from Abbott’s political strategist Dave Carney, poll director Mark Jones noted that of 21 public polls conducted in Texas in the final month of the 2020 presidential election, just two projected a margin of victory for then-President Donald Trump of 5 percentage points or greater. And the Hobby School’s poll came closest to the actual outcome, he said.
“Using similar methodology to that employed for this survey, in late October of 2020 the Hobby School projected that Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 5.3% in Texas,” he said.
Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points (52.1%-46.5%), noted Jones, a Rice University political scientist who is the Hobby School’s senior research fellow.
O’Rourke is the only Democrat running statewide whose name is recognized by a majority of likely voters, the poll found.
The proportion of likely voters who do not know enough about the candidate to have an opinion was 51% for Garza, 55% for Collier, 74% for Jay Kleberg (land commissioner), 75% for Susan Hays (agriculture commissioner), 77% for Janet Dudding (comptroller) and 79% for Luke Warford (railroad commissioner).
Top issues
The poll went into the field three days after the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson that overruled Roe v. Wade, the case from Dallas County that established abortion rights.
However, in ranking the importance of 15 issues to their decision in the governor’s race, voters placed abortion 10th, with just 64% of all respondents and 66% of likely voters saying it would be extremely or very important in their choice of a gubernatorial candidate.
Among likely voters, 49% of Abbott voters say abortion is extremely or very important in their choice, while 87% of O’Rourke voters say it is.
Four issues are extremely or very important to more than 9 out of 10 Abbott voters: inflation (96%), immigration and border security (94%), crime and public safety (92%), and government spending and taxes (91%). Three issues are extremely or very important to more than 9 out of 10 O’Rourke voters: voting rights (94%), gun control (92%), and health care costs, including prescription drugs (90%).
When respondents were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of 10 well-known political figures, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn had the lowest proportion of Texas registered voters holding a favorable opinion of him (28%) of any of the national and state politicians listed. And the list included Vice President Kamala Harris (36% favorable) and U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (32%).
Cornyn is also viewed unfavorably by a higher proportion of Texans (54%) than any other Republican, including Trump (51%), U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (49%), Abbott (47%), Paxton (40%) and Patrick (39%), the poll found.
Next week, the Hobby School will release the poll’s in-depth findings about abortion.
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