AUSTIN, Texas — Early voting statewide and in key North Texas counties this year was down significantly from the 2018 midterm election, according to the Texas secretary of state.
Experts predict turnout to fall short of the record-smashing numbers four years ago, when former President Donald Trump was in the White House and voters were motivated to go to the polls as a repudiation of the Republican’s policies.
Turnout in Texas was 53% in 2018, but this year, it’s expected to be closer to the 35% who voted in 2014. Republican data analyst Derek Ryan predicted last weekend that this year’s total would be 36.5%.
Dallas County’s early voting turnout was 23% lower than in 2018, the biggest decrease among North Texas counties. Jeff Dalton, a Dallas County-based political consultant, said nearly 29% of the county’s registered voters cast ballots, compared with nearly 40% in 2018. Dalton points out that the 2022 early vote totals are more robust than the 2014 midterms, when only 17.8% voted early.
Early voting ended Friday, a rainy day in Dallas-Fort Worth, which tends to depress turnout. Election Day is Tuesday, and polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
This year’s midterms feature several key races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and other statewide offices. At the top of the ticket, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is running for a third term against Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
Low turnout in Dallas County doesn’t bode well for O’Rourke, who has said he needs strong numbers in Democratic cities and to build on gains in Tarrant County in 2018 and 2020.
Statewide
2018 early voters: 4.8 million, 40% of 15.8 million registered voters
In 2018, the Texas secretary of state tracked only the 30 counties with the most people.
2022 early voters: 5.4 million, 31% of 17.7 million registered voters
But the numbers are somewhat deceiving, because the secretary of state tracked all 254 counties this year. In the top 30 counties, which had 13.8 million voters, 4.4 million ballots were cast for a turnout of 32%.
2018 voters: 8.4 million, 53%
2014 voters: 5.4 million, 31%
North Texas early voting
Dallas County: 411,270, a 23% decrease from 2018
Tarrant County: 409,295, a 12% decrease
Collin County: 264,127, an 8% decrease
Denton County: 227,578, a .5% decrease. But the county has added about 109,000 voters since 2018.
Ellis County: 45,287, a .27% increase. The county has added about 23,900 voters.
El Paso County
Even voters in O’Rourke’s hometown haven’t turned out like they did four years ago.
About 103,000 El Pasoans have voted, a decrease of 26% from early voting in 2018, when O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of defeating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the Senate race.
Abbott has widened his lead over O’Rourke in recent months, despite O’Rourke outraising the two-term governor in three consecutive reporting periods.
