The race for Texas' 34th congressional district remains a Democratic stronghold as Republicans in the state seek to make inroads with Latinos while also keeping control of the U.S. House and flip the Senate.
In November, U.S. Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D) and Mayra Flores ® will face each other once again to represent a portion of South Texas, promising to improve the economy and cut down the flow of migrants through the border.
Flores briefly represented the district after she won a special election in July 2022. At the time, Gonzalez represented a neighboring district. That year, state lawmakers redrew the state's congressional maps following the 2020 census, taking Gonzalez into the new District 34, which was more competitive for Republicans. Gonzalez would go on to beat the Republican lawmaker in the 2022 general election by 8.5 percentage points.
Two years later, despite hopes of a Republican upset, it seems that Gonzalez will be able to keep his seat.
Internal polling by the National Republican Congressional Committee has consistently shown Gonzalez with a lead. In their latest survey, conducted between Sept. 28-Oct. 1 showed the Democratic incumbent with a 3 percentage point lead over Flores, FiveThirtyEight reports. Likewise, the Cook Political Report rates the race as "Lean Democrat."
The economy and immigration have both been major issues for this race, largely mirroring the priorities of the rest of the country's electorate.
During a meet and greet with supporters in the district in September, Flores raised a popular rhetorical question among Republicans over whether constituents were financially better off today than they were four years ago when President Joe Biden took office, according to The Texas Tribune.
"Ask yourself, do you have more money in your pockets now or did you have more money in your pockets four years ago," Flores said.
By contrast, Gonzalez usually points to cooling inflation and the low unemployment rate, adding that the U.S. is leading the world in post-pandemic recovery.
On immigration, the two also show a stark difference in approach. On one hand, Flores supports the mass deportation of immigrants who commit crimes. She has often drawn from her background as an immigrant to oppose illegal immigration, denouncing the large number of migrants seeking asylum.
Gonzalez, on the other hand, has expressed support for the bipartisan Senate bill that Republicans eventually voted down as a solution to border security. During his time in Congress, he has also supported more funding for cities and nonprofits along the border that provide migrant services, he's been heavily involved in negotiations with Mexican officials over the country's compliance with a 1944 water treaty, and more.
Texas' 34th District is located at the southeast corner of the state, along the Gulf Coast. It includes Brownsville and Harlingen in Cameron County and stretches west into parts of Hidalgo County to include some parts of McAllen, Edinburgh and Pharr. About 87% of the residents are Hispanic and 12% are non-Hispanic white, The Texas Tribune reports.
The balance of power in the House will likely be decided by 42 of the most competitive races, according to The New York Times. Republicans could maintain control of the chamber by winning 11 of the 26 seats rated as tossups if they also secured the seats rated Likely or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report. They have incumbents in 14 of those tossup seats.
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