WHEN: 12:00 p.m. CT
WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
FORECAST: Snow showers, 36 degrees, 3 mph winds (indoors)
FOLLOW: @therealmarklane, @bigsargesportz, @johnhcrumpler @thetexanswire
LISTEN: Sports Radio 610 [KILT-AM] and 100.3 The Bull [KLOL]
WATCH: CBS (Spero Dedes & Jay Feely)
RED — New England at Buffalo
BLUE — Baltimore at Cincinnati
GREEN — Cleveland at Pittsburgh
YELLOW — Houston at Indianapolis
10. Colts' rank for rushing yards per game surrendered
Indianapolis gives up 128.1 rushing yards per game, the 10th-most in the NFL. However, their yards per carry surrendered is 4.2, tied for the seventh-fewest in the league. Nevertheless if the Texans can commit to the run game generate some results, they should be able to keep the Colts’ defense off balance.
9. Davis Mills' rank for pressures
Mills has taken the most pressures this season with 114, ranking the ninth-most in the NFL. If the Texans can provide a clean pocket for Mills, which should be likely given the offensive line is healthy, Houston should have a more effective passing game.
8. Indianapolis' rank for sacks
The Colts have produced 43 sacks this season, tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the eighth-most in the NFL. The pass rush should still be a threat, and the Texans need to be on point and give Davis Mills time.
7. Christian Kirksey's tackles for loss
Kirko has been solid for Houston in the linebacking corps, and his seven tackles for loss rank as the second-most in his career. 2016 saw Kirksey produced 11 with the Cleveland Browns. He may not get to that number with a game to go, but any extra tackles for loss will help Houston beat the Colts.
6. Colts' rank for red zone trips
The Colts have visited the red zone 43 times this season, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the sixth-fewest in the NFL. That means the Colts get inside the 20-yard line a little over 2.7 times per game. With a 44.2% conversion rate, that means the Colts score on 1.2 of their red zone trips per game.
5. Texans' yards per carry surrendered
The Texans give up exactly five yards a carry, tied for the fourth-most in the league. The Texans may not see Jonathan Taylor, but they will see enough of Zack Moss and Jordan Wilkins to try to compromise Houston’s run defense.
4. Indianapolis' rank for third down conversions
The Colts have the fourth-lowest third down conversion rate in the league at 33.0%. The Texans have to keep the Colts around this number if they want to get out Lucas Oil Stadium with a win.
3. Houston and Indianapolis' rank for missed tackles
Both the Colts and the Texans have given up 84 missed tackles this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL. The missed tackles represent opportunities for plays that should have ended at the first level turning into chunk plays. As stupendous of a rookie season Jalen Pitre has had, he leads the team with 18 missed tackles.
2. Sam Ehlinger's starts
The former Texas Longhorn has started two games for the Colts in 2022. What is most notable about his time under center this season is he has taken 12 sacks, averaging out to six per game. If the Texans are dropping Ehlinger six times, they should be winning the game.
1. The 2023 NFL draft
A loss secures the No. 1 overall pick for Houston. If the Texans win, they would need to the Chicago Bears to beat the Minnesota Vikings; otherwise, the Monsters of the Midway will be picking first in April.
