WHEN: 12:00 p.m. CT
WHERE: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
FORECAST: Cloudy, 69 degrees, 3 mph winds (indoors)
FOLLOW: @therealmarklane, @bigsargesportz, @texans_thoughts, @johnhcrumpler @thetexanswire
LISTEN: Sports Radio 610 [KILT-AM] and 100.3 The Bull [KLOL]
WATCH: CBS (Spero Dedes & Jay Feely)
RED — NY Jets at Minnesota
BLUE — Denver at Baltimore
GREEN — Pittsburgh at Atlanta
YELLOW — Cleveland at Houston
10. Cleveland's rank for red zone conversions
The Browns have converted on 60.0% of their red zone trips, good for 10th-best in the NFL. It isn’t simply a good percentage either; the Browns have had 40 trips, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for seventh-best in the league. If the Texans can limit Cleveland’s red zone trips, it will give them a chance.
9. Dameon Pierce's rank for rushing yards
Even though Pierce has not even crested the 20-yard mark in any of the past two games, the fourth-rounder from Florida is still ninth-best in the NFL with 788 rushing yards. Houston has to stay committed to Pierce as he is the only effective element of their offense. The sooner Pierce gets put away, the quicker Houston is destined to lose.
8. Amari Cooper's drops
Cooper has had a renaissance year with 57 catches for 792 yards and seven touchdowns. However, he is tied with Deebo Samuel for the most drops in the NFL. If Cooper has a case of the dropsies against the Texans, it may be the hidden advantage they need to keep pace with Cleveland.
7. Cleveland's rank for yards per carry surrendered
The Browns give up the seventh-highest yards per carry at 4.8, and it may actually be a vulnerability in their defense. Cleveland gives up 131.5 rushing yards per game, the 10th-most in the league, suggesting that maybe their defense has trouble stopping the run.
6. Nick Chubb's rank for yards per carry
Among running backs who have played at least 10 games, Chubb’s 5.2 yards per carry is the sixth-highest in the league. It can’t be ignored how critical the run game has been to Cleveland’s offense. If the Texans can’t disrupt Chubb, no matter the starting quarterback, the Browns will have their way at NRG Stadium.
5. Myles Garrett's rank for sacks
It is worth noting that Garrett is tied for the fifth-most sacks in the NFL with 10.0, making it the sixth straight season the Texas A&M product has logged double digit sacks. If there is any bright spot, it is that Garrett is the only prolific defender when it comes to sacks. No one else on the team even has 3.0. If Houston can stymy Garrett, they may have time for downfield options.
4. Deshaun Watson's jersey number
There is no question Watson is the ultimate wild-card for the Browns’ offense in Week 13. How much rust will he have to knock off? If the rust is nonexistent, how much further can he take the offense than Jacoby Brissett did the first 11 games? The best case scenario for Houston is that their former franchise quarterback looks like he hasn’t played football since Jan. 3, 2021.
3. Houston's rank for missed tackles
The Texans are tied with the Denver Broncos for the third-most missed tackles in the NFL with 63. Given that the Texans are going against a strong running game led by Nick Chubb, they cannot afford to let their technique slip.
2. Houston's rank on third down conversions
The Texans are horrendous on third down with a 28.1% conversion rate, the second-lowest in the league. Houston actually faces the ninth-fewest third downs in the league at 139. The problem is simply execution.
1. Houston's projected overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft
The Texans’ proprietary pick is on target for the No. 1 overall pick. Because of how terrible Houston is at 1-9-1, a win would not materially affect their projection after the conclusion of this week. Therefore, it actually helps the Texans’ 2023 draft plans to beat the Browns in Week 13 — because Houston also owns Cleveland’s pick from a trade in the offseason.
