The Houston Texans finalized their hire of former team captain DeMeco Ryans as the sixth coach in franchise history.
Ryans arrival not only brings in the PFWA Assistant Coach of the Year but also marks a transition point in the Texans rebuild where there appears to be genuine faith, both locally and nationally, that Houston will be ready to play meaningful football soon. The team has 12 draft picks, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the most in the draft, and $37.1 million in salary cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL. There are plenty of resources to help Ryans improve what was one of the league’s worst rosters in 2022.
How might the decision to hire Ryans effect Houston’s future draft plans? In this mock Houston has already spent big money in free agency to address their needs at interior defensive and interior offensive line. Will Nick Caserio remain aggressive in the draft as he was in 2021 and 2022 with trades? Here’s a 2023 mock draft that showcases how the franchise may act with the general manager truly working equally with his coach for the first time.
Round 1 (No. 2 overall) — QB Bryce Young, Alabama
It’s not just the Alabama connection, as fun as that is to speculate about. Ryans needs a quarterback like Young as much as Young will need a coach like Ryans.
This launch point in the draft signals stability for Houston at the game’s most difficult position to play and most important position to win at. Ryans watched his former boss Kyle Shanahan work magic in San Francisco with backup quarterbacks and is fully aware of how difficult that needle is to thread.
Young provides maturity, breathtaking playmaking ability, high level accuracy and fantastic pocket elevation that projects as a franchise quarterback at the next level. His frame, some reportedly believe as small as 5-10, 185 pounds will be cause for concern for some NFL evaluators.
Historically, first round quarterbacks fail because of 1 of 3 things:
1) Immaturity
2) Inaccuracy
3) Imprudence (read: bad on-field decisions)Hard to imagine Bryce Young struggling with any of these in the NFL. We're talking about an extremely high floor prospect #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 1, 2022
However, college football’s best quarterback is too talented with too pro-ready a game for Houston to pass on. His high floor, even in a worst case scenario, will help to elevate Houston’s surrounding pieces and allow the roster to grow. His ceiling could help bring Houston to Super Bowl contention.
Round 1 (No. 18 overall) — WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
- Trade with Detroit Lions for 2023 Nos. 18 and 49 overall, 2024 third-rounder for Houston Texans’ No. 12 overall
Caserio has always been an aggressive trader during his first two drafts. As such, with a laundry list of needs for his new coaching hire, it’s only appropriate to project a few trades in this mock.
Here, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is on the board and Houston acts quickly to capitalize on the value of the prospect and gather additional Day 3 capital. The Detroit Lions send pick 49 (Round 2) and a 2024 3rd round pick to come up for their developmental quarterback while Houston goes down to 18th overall.
The Texans find their playmaking WR1 of the future in Smith-Njigba. The Buckeyes have recently produced Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, both of which are considered the favorites to win 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
While they were still in school, it was Smith-Njigba who was considered the slam dunk prospect and future high pick. It was No. 11 who lead the 2021 Buckeyes in catches and yards by a wide margin over the former two top-12 selections.
Draft Ohio State wide receivers. Don’t forget how great Jaxon Smith-Njigba was in 2021. He is WR1. Polished route runner, great hands and dangerous after the catch. pic.twitter.com/2PlNFc7DEu
— Kendell Hollowell (@KHollowell_) January 16, 2023
In his introductory press conference, Ryans spoke about what he wanted from his offense and it’s possible no receiver better fits the mold in this class than the shifty playmaker.
“We want to be able to operate with play action pass. We also want to be efficient. We want to have explosive playmakers who we can get the ball to. If it’s not down the field, we want to be able to throw a checkdown and put it in the hands of an explosive playmaker and see him create.”
There will be concerns about Smith-Njigba’s inability to play this past season, however, he’s the level of talent that Houston shouldn’t pass on in today’s evolving pass-heavy NFL.
Round 2 (No. 33 overall) — DE Nolan Smith, Georgia
To kickoff the second round, Houston needs to find some explosive playmakers for Ryans defense. They’re given the offense a great foundation that there should fewer three-and-outs and far less of an expectation for the defensive unit to perfect. Now, they need to attack opposing quarterbacks and assemble a plan to stop divisional rival Trevor Lawrence.
Smith provides Ryans with an excellent rushing outside linebacker and someone who made a career out of attacking the quarterback in the SEC. The 6-3, 235-pound edge suffered a torn pectoral muscle in 2022 and derailed what was expected to be a potential All-American campaign.
Houston capitalizes off that value and provides a ball of clay for Ryans to hopefully turn into an excellent playmaker for the Texans defense.
Round 2 (No. 37 overall) — RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
- Trade with Los Angeles Rams for 2023 No. 37 overall for Houston Texans’ Nos. 49 and 76 overall
There are two receivers on the team who were acquired via trades on Day 2 in Nico Collins and John Metchie. Caserio uses the previously gained draft capital, pick 49 from Detroit and their own selection of pick 75, to leap forward in the draft for Gibbs.
NFL evaluators are comparing Gibbs to New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara and he was Alabama’s leading receiver this past season while Young was forced to work with a far less talented host of wideouts. He has explosive speed to attack the edge and soft hands that project to be extremely valuable on third down.
Jahmyr Gibbs showcasing his pass catching ability👀
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 31, 2022
Gibbs arrival not only provides a sense of familiarity for Young but also someone who should be a huge aid on passing downs and in the red zone. His presence with Dameon Pierce could very easily remind people of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara’s earlier years together with the Saints.
Houston saw firsthand how valuable Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne entering the league together has been. They replicate the strategy here.
Round 3 (No. 65 overall) — LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
Sewell was once projected as a first-round selection but since then he’s had a bit of a fall from grace. He’s no longer a consensus top-5 linebacker in the class and certainly not someone many evaluators are pinning to go in the first 31 picks.
#Oregon ILB Noah Sewell 6’3 260lbs
(Younger brother of Penei)If your team needs a BULLY at LB, I got you a guy.
High motor, aggressive LB who moves really well for his size.
Can over commit at times.2-3rd round player who will contribute early!
pic.twitter.com/g4MrqRMtom— Jared Tokarz (@JaredNFLDraft) January 23, 2023
To kickoff the third round, Houston stops Sewell’s fall and tries to put a smile on their new coach’s face. Ryans spoke about his love of drafting linebackers in the introductory press conference and few could help the position group as much as Sewell.
The 6-3, 250-pound linebacker would serve as a natural run thumping compliment to second year player Christian Harris and is the type of athlete that could make major strides forward under Ryans system. Houston has already addressed the pass rush in this mock and now they work towards the biggest weakness of last year’s team in second-level run defense.
Sewell and Harris could serve as a long time duo in Houston’s linebacking group and are exactly the type of young talented needed to turn around the run defense.
Round 6 — QB Max Duggan, TCU
This mock draft cheats a bit and skips ahead to the last selection of Houston’s draft, but for good fun and for good purpose. Ryans comes from a team that just made it to the NFC Championship, one game away from the Super Bowl, starting rookie Mr. Irrelevant for the entire second half of the season.
There’s reason to believe Houston already has a high quality backup quarterback on the roster, but, they decide to end their draft with a bit of a home run swing and take the Heisman Tophy finalist.
The 21-year-old will come as a fan favorite to Houston with his NFL future a bit cloudy, especially after a rough senior bowl. The Texans have reason to be impressed at the way Duggan responded to not being named the Horned Frogs starter at the beginning of last season and how excellent his preparation was all the same. His young age and sturdy frame at 6-1, 211 pounds offers a great player to potentially run the practice squad if he’s unable to beat Davis Mills in a competition.
In 2012 Washington showed the value of taking multiple swings on quarterbacks when they took Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins in the same draft. With no clear franchise answer, Houston makes a business decision and tries to do the same here. At worst Duggan is an excellent backup to Young or pushes Mills to improve for that role, at best he’s an excellent future trade asset.
