Texans vs. Chiefs Expert Picks, Player Props, & Best Bets looks at the best bets as the Chiefs embark on a historic three-peat.
The Houston Texans face a daunting challenge on Saturday, taking on the reigning two-time Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round. Houston punched their ticket with a commanding 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, while Kansas City enjoyed the luxury of a first-round bye.
The Texans (10-7), champions of the AFC South, have been resilient on the road this season, posting a 5-4 record. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (15-2) continue their dominance, securing their ninth consecutive AFC West title and remaining unbeaten at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, where they are a perfect 8-0 this year.
With kickoff set for 4:30 p.m. ET, the Texans aim to topple a dynasty, while the Chiefs look to keep their championship dreams alive.
NFL Divisional Round: Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Preview
All Texans vs. Chiefs odds are correct as of Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025.
-
Spread
Chiefs -8.5 -
Moneyline
Texans +380, Chiefs -425 -
Over/Under
41.5 points -
Game time
4:30 p.m. ET -
Location
Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City, MO -
Predicted Weather at Kick
37*, mostly cloudy -
How To Watch
ABC/ESPN
Here are our best bets for the Chiefs vs. Texans:
- Texans +8.5
- Joe Mixon | RB | Texans | OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction: Texans +8
The line for this matchup opened at Kansas City -7.5 and has since moved to -8.5, reflecting confidence in the Chiefs. These two teams met just weeks ago, with Kansas City securing a 27-19 victory in Week 16 as 3.5-point home favorites. That game marked the beginning of Kansas City’s postseason push, shifting gears after a season spent carefully pacing themselves for January football.
In that meeting, the Chiefs dominated offensively, moving the ball with ease both on the ground and through the air. Meanwhile, the defense delivered crucial plays, intercepting C.J. Stroud twice and holding the Texans to just 1-for-3 in the red zone. Those mistakes proved costly for Houston, but they also demonstrated resilience, fitting the mold of a dangerous underdog hitting their stride at the right time.
Kansas City boasts a championship-caliber defense but has seen its offensive explosiveness wane under Matt Nagy in his second stint as offensive coordinator. The Chiefs have leaned heavily on their pedigree, scraping out narrow victories in key moments. Meanwhile, Houston arrives in Kansas City loose and carefree, carrying the confidence of a team-building momentum.
Yes, Andy Reid’s teams excel after a bye, and the Chiefs are well-rested. But with Houston entering with a plethora of injuries providing a carefree mentality and the Texans’ growing confidence, this feels like a spot where Houston can cover. At +8.5, the Texans are a live underdog worth taking.
Best Player Prop Bet: Joe Mixon – Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Joe Mixon has been the heart of Houston’s ground game this season, taking on 70.9% of the team’s carries in games he’s played. However, projections suggest an even larger role for Mixon against Kansas City, with his workload expected to climb to 80.9%. He’s been more productive this year, averaging 75.0 adjusted rushing yards per game compared to 61.0 last season.
The stiff arm from Joe Mixon! pic.twitter.com/w1j5PWQC0Q
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) January 12, 2025
Last week against the Chargers, Mixon carried the ball 26 times for 105 yards, a performance driven by a favorable game script as the Texans built a lead. While the Chiefs are unlikely to let Houston get too comfortable, it’s hard to imagine them forcing the Texans into a game plan that abandons the run entirely. The key will be opening the run game through the air, and with Mixon’s versatility, the Texans should find a way to keep him heavily involved.
