Davis Mills has been here before.
It was just one year ago that Mills was set to start Houston’s pivotal Week 18 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The game carried a great deal of importance – the opportunity for the Texans to secure the first overall pick in the NFL draft. Rather than fold as a two-win team, Mills led the greatest scoring drive of his young career. His 298 yard, 3 touchdown and 2 interception performance fueled Houston to a thrilling Hail Mary finish and the subsequent two-point conversion to Jordan Akins gave Houston a 32-31 victory and a 3-13-1 record. In the process, they sacrificed the first selection to Chicago.
The series of events altered the course of Houston’s franchise. DeMeco Ryans was hired as coach of the Texans, quarterback C.J. Stroud was selected rather than league favorite Bryce Young, and the rest is history.
Mills setup Houston
It was Mills whose performance brought Houston on the path where they are today. The upstart Texans (7-6) are one of the NFL’s best storylines this season and firmly in the AFC playoff picture. Stroud, the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the game while young has severely struggled in Carolina. Ryans has navigated the team far beyond expectations that they would be selecting in the Top 10 once again.
As such, nobody would have believed that Mills next start would carry near as much importance for the Texans franchise.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud is not here at practice today. He still remains in concussion protocol.
— Jonathan M Alexander (@jonmalexander) December 14, 2023
A concussion last week against the New York Jets has left Stroud likely sidelined for their Week 15 game and suddenly the team turns once again to Mills. This time, rather than a fan base cheering for his downfall, Mills faces a must-win contest if his team is going to carry their stunning momentum into the playoffs.
Can Mills actually deliver?
In similar fashion to the last two seasons, Mills inherits a depleted offensive roster. Houston’s best two receivers, Tank Dell and Nico Collins, are expected to miss the contest while top tight end Dalton Schultz has missed the last two games. This all comes at a time when Houston has severely struggled on their offensive line both protecting the quarterback and running the ball under first year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
Slowik, despite any imperfections, has been a huge success story for the Texans with his offensive staff. There are no questions that the Texans have been better this season offensively, the attention fairly turns now to how they can perform without their star rookie quarterback.
The Tennessee Titans, with a record of 5-8, have been one of the NFL’s weirder teams this season. They’ve struggled offensively with rookie quarterback Will Levis but have showed enough firepower to pull off upsets over playoff bound teams such as the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons. Former Houston Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins has showed no signs of aging and running back Derrick Henry, despite a noticeable step back, has still proven to be the workhorse fans across the NFL have grown accustomed to.
The Titans are one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses, they rank top-10 defensively in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, and yards per carry. It will be a tall task for running back Devin Singletary and a component of Houston’s offense that has struggled to find its footing. Second year running back Dameon Pierce, a star just a year ago alongside Mills, seems to be in the doghouse with insert snap count. Running the ball represents probably the most difficult facet of Houston’s matchup.
The Texans & Titans both rank Top 10 defensively in rushing success rate, EPA per carry and yards per carry.
Not hard to imagine both defenses selling out to force flawed quarterbacks to go perform.
Sunday's outcome will largely depend on Davis Mills & Will Levis #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 14, 2023
Instead, in a game where Houston will likely struggle to run the ball, Mills may be asked to shoulder an extraordinary load. He has maintained a firm grip on the backup quarterback job despite the presence of veteran Case Keenum on the roster and is someone the coaching staff has repeated vouched for. This is his chance.
“Davis has done a good job with everything that we’ve asked him to do,” Ryans said. “He’s done a really good job of just leading in his own right, just seeing him on our scout team, just seeing how he helps out — helps us out with the defensive looks. He’s done a really good job of what he’s been asked to do.”
Mills' moment
Sunday is an incredible opportunity for the third year quarterback to prove his worth to the Texans’ roster as a backup and to establish himself as someone who can be reliably called upon to pinch hit. Mills brings with him 26 NFL starts where he has compiled 33 touchdowns, 25 interceptions and 5,806 yards while he worked Houston through two brutal rebuilding years.
Caught up with Davis Mills ahead of – potentially – his first start since week 18 last regular season #Texans
“The experience I’ve been able to build over these past couple of years has made me a better player and I’m looking forward to displaying that.” pic.twitter.com/epVcOZFQaf
— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) December 14, 2023
A win would place Houston firmly in the driver’s seat for the AFC wild-card and potentially in position to win the AFC South should the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to first place Baltimore this weekend. A loss would place Houston in a difficult position as the Buffalo Bills, the Denver Broncos, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Cincinnati Bengals crowd a complicated playoff race.
Pundits around the NFL have noted how friendly Slowik’s offensive design and play calling has been towards Stroud as a rookie. Now, the team will hope that Mills can see that same benefit from the third offensive system he’s been asked to learn in three years in his first start of 2023. It will likely take one of the better games of his career working alongside Schultz and receivers Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie to power Houston over their division rival on a day they wear Oilers Blue.
This wasn’t supposed to be Mills’ year. However, it will absolutely have to be Mills’ week if Houston is to continue their dream season. Similar to just a year ago and for all different reasons, fans will have to watch on Sunday to see if Mills Magic can propel Houston to yet another improbable win.
