Tesla received three new price-target cuts, as analysts slash earnings and delivery estimates amid signs of weak demand and a tarnished brand image. But Tesla stock jumped Wednesday, extending Tuesday's bounce amid President Donald Trump's White House promotional event.
Evercore ISI cut its TSLA price target to 235 from 275, keeping an In Line rating. Evercore's Chris McNally cut its full-year delivery target to 1.75 million. That would be slightly below 2024's 1,789,226, which in turned edged lower from 2023's 1,808,581.
On Monday UBS Group cuts its 2025 Tesla delivery target to 1.7 million.
Tesla Brand 'Destruction'
McNally is seeing brand "destruction" worldwide. CEO Elon Musk's work with the Trump administration and his highly political posts regarding the U.S., Ukraine and more has alienated many of Tesla's traditional customers in the U.S. and Europe.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts wrote, "We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly." JPMorgan cut its TSLA price target to 120 from $135, keeping an Underweight weighting.
In addition to sales concerns, Evercore's McNally raised concerns about Tesla's self-driving hopes. Musk says Tesla will begin unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin this June. But McNally cited data from the unofficial FSD Community Tracker, touted by Tesla CEO Elon Musk multiple times, as showing "little improvement" in Full Self-Driving in terms of miles per disengagement.
He also cited growing doubts that Tesla will expand its lineup meaningfully. A new, more affordable EV is supposed to start production midyear, but Tesla still hasn't showed any images. Investors worry that may only be a cheaper, stripped-down Model Y variant, McNally said.
Tesla Deliveries 'Sizable Miss'
Meanwhile Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow trimmed his Tesla price target to $170 from 175, sticking with a sell rating.
First-quarter deliveries "tracking for a sizable miss," wrote Jewsikow in a late Tuesday report, slashing his target to 358,000 from 405,000.
JPM now sees Q1 deliveries at just 355,000.
March deliveries are hard to estimate, Jewsikow noted, because the new Model Y is ramping up production while it's unclear how much Tesla is willing to discount older Model Ys.
The Guggenheim analyst wrote that Tesla could start bleeding cash. "TSLA has little room left to reduce price before FCF flips negative."
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Tesla Estimates Falling
Overall, analysts still expect Q1 deliveries of 430,000, according to FactSet, down from Q4's record 462,890 but up from Q1 2024's 386.810. For the full year, the FactSet delivery consensus is 1.987 million.
But the recent trend is heading lower.
Analysts expect Tesla earnings of 52 cents a share in the first quarter, up nearly 16% vs. a year earlier. But the sharp consensus, which includes more recent estimates, sees EPS edging lower to 44 cents.
Likewise, Wall Street official pegs Q1 revenue up 10% to $23.471 billion, but the sharp consensus predicts a 1% rise to $21.532 billion.
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Trump Bump For Tesla?
On Tuesday, Trump said he would buy a Tesla to support Elon Musk, holding a quasi-infomercial outside the White House. Trump's move could encourage more of his supporters to buy a Tesla, though his voters are less inclined to buy electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the event could further drive a wedge between Tesla and its traditional customers in the U.S. and Europe.
Tesla Stock Rallies Early Wednesday
Tesla stock rallied 7.6% to 248.09 in Wednesday stock market trading. On Tuesday, shares bounced 3.8% after crashing 15.4% on Monday. TSLA stock has round-tripped all its postelection gains.
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